新奥能源(02688.HK)：销气量指引下调不影响长期投资逻辑，维持“买入”评级，目标价 108 港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：108 港元
投资要点
2020年上半年核心利润 31.12亿港元，同比增长 13.8%：
截至2020年6月30日止六个月， 公司实现营业额315.43亿元人民币(单位下同)，同比下降10.8%；股东应占利润 26.93 亿元，同比下降 19.9%；基本每股收益 2.4 元。若撇除其他收益及亏损及购股权摊销的影响，公司核心利润 31.12 亿元，同比增长13.8%。考虑上半年疫情对 CNG气量影响较大，公司将2020年全年销气量指引由年初的12-15%调整为10%。
气源优势支撑销气毛差，预期 2020年全年销气毛差提升 2分钱：
公司进口 LNG 带来成本节约，上半年公司天然气零售毛利同比增长9.4%。期内天然气零售业务及燃气批发的毛利率分别上升 3.1个百分点至 16.7%及 1.3 个百分点至 1.7%，带来上半年的毛利率同比上升 2.0 个百分点至17.8%。期内公司销气毛差 0.61元/立方米，同比增加 3分钱，预期全年销气毛差 0.60元/立方米，同比增加 2分钱。
疫情影响公司接驳业务及现金流，预期下半年将改善：
上半年公司新增居民接驳 102.5 万户，预计全年开发居民户不低于 230万户。上半年疫情影响公司接驳工程进度，预收和应付款，并带来上半年经营现金流同比减少 10.81 亿元人民币。目前公司工程进度及款项已恢复正常，2020 年全年资本开支不超过 80 亿元人民币，预期全年自由现金流不低于去年。
维持买入评级，目标价 108 港元：
公司维持全年核心利润增长 15%不变，我们认为上半年疫情对接驳业务及现金流的短期影响不改公司核心LNG气源竞争优势和长期投资逻辑。我们更新公司盈利预测并结合行业内可比公司估值情况，给予公司目标价 108 港元，相当于 2020 年和 2021 年 18 倍和 15 倍 PE，目标价较现价有 24%上升空间，维持买入评级。
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