新奧能源(02688.HK)：銷氣量指引下調不影響長期投資邏輯，維持“買入”評級，目標價 108 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：108 港元
投資要點
2020年上半年核心利潤 31.12億港元，同比增長 13.8%：
截至2020年6月30日止六個月， 公司實現營業額315.43億元人民幣(單位下同)，同比下降10.8%；股東應占利潤 26.93 億元，同比下降 19.9%；基本每股收益 2.4 元。若撇除其他收益及虧損及購股權攤銷的影響，公司核心利潤 31.12 億元，同比增長13.8%。考慮上半年疫情對 CNG氣量影響較大，公司將2020年全年銷氣量指引由年初的12-15%調整為10%。
氣源優勢支撐銷氣毛差，預期 2020年全年銷氣毛差提升 2分錢：
公司進口 LNG 帶來成本節約，上半年公司天然氣零售毛利同比增長9.4%。期內天然氣零售業務及燃氣批發的毛利率分別上升 3.1個百分點至 16.7%及 1.3 個百分點至 1.7%，帶來上半年的毛利率同比上升 2.0 個百分點至17.8%。期內公司銷氣毛差 0.61元/立方米，同比增加 3分錢，預期全年銷氣毛差 0.60元/立方米，同比增加 2分錢。
疫情影響公司接駁業務及現金流，預期下半年將改善：
上半年公司新增居民接駁 102.5 萬户，預計全年開發居民户不低於 230萬户。上半年疫情影響公司接駁工程進度，預收和應付款，並帶來上半年經營現金流同比減少 10.81 億元人民幣。目前公司工程進度及款項已恢復正常，2020 年全年資本開支不超過 80 億元人民幣，預期全年自由現金流不低於去年。
維持買入評級，目標價 108 港元：
公司維持全年核心利潤增長 15%不變，我們認為上半年疫情對接駁業務及現金流的短期影響不改公司核心LNG氣源競爭優勢和長期投資邏輯。我們更新公司盈利預測並結合行業內可比公司估值情況，給予公司目標價 108 港元，相當於 2020 年和 2021 年 18 倍和 15 倍 PE，目標價較現價有 24%上升空間，維持買入評級。
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