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《大行報告》瑞銀降長建(01038.HK)評級至「中性」 目標價下調至40元
阿思達克 09-08 10:14
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,預計未來五年本地公用股回報將現差異,並將成重要主題之一,該行認為長江基建(01038.HK)在海外資產較多,約佔盈利的七成,估計將為股價帶來拖累,但對公司看法並非太負面,評級由「買入」降至「中性」,認為股價今年以來跑輸,而股息率達6厘估計亦會帶來支撐。瑞銀仍相信公司可維持其每股派息,估計任何新項目收購都能成為正面的催化劑,但時間仍具高度不確定性。

瑞銀指出未來數月一些受規管的公用資產均會面對監管轉變,或會導致香港及非香港業務回報出現差異,惟投資者未有留意相關情況。該行指出英國及澳洲受監管的公用業務回報在2010至2014年起呈跌勢,而基準名義股本回報率由2010至14年的10.5%跌至2015至19年的7.5%,估計2020至24年將續跌至4.7%。該行指出由於長建項目營運效率較高,故旗下項目回報較高,但不認為相關因素足以抵銷監管因素對回報帶來的負面影響。

該行將公司2021至22年盈利預測降5%,以反映英國及澳洲監管因素帶來的影響,2023年預測則大幅降11%,以反映對前景較悲觀,目標價降31%,由58元降至40元。

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