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旅遊板塊高開走強!“超級黃金週”引爆出遊熱情促行業回暖
格隆匯 09-07 10:55

9月7日,A股旅遊板塊走強,騰邦國際大漲超15%,中青旅、峨眉山A、西安旅遊、凱撒鋁業等有所跟漲。

數據來源:Choice

酒店板塊也有所反應,錦江酒店、首旅酒店等漲幅有所拉昇。

數據來源:Choice

而究及板塊漲勢靠前的原因,主要是源自於市場對板塊回暖的樂觀預期所致,即隨着人們對國慶黃金週的期待,出遊意願的“報復性反彈”有望出現,利好板塊迎來修復性行情。

近日,國務院辦公廳發佈了2020年國慶放假通知:10月1日(星期四)至8日(星期四)放假調休,共8天。

而這一連休八天的“超級黃金週”顯然為市場打了一次雞血,畢竟隨着國內疫情趨於平穩,進入常態化時期,人們壓抑的出遊需求或將通過這一假期集中爆發,今年十一假期有望全年首個旅遊高峯和消費黃金週。

“去年國慶黃金週七天,國內遊客達到7.82億人次,國內旅遊收入達到6497.1億元...今年國慶假期有出行計劃的旅客中,超八成旅客計劃旅遊3天以上,超六成計劃旅遊花費5000元以上。”——公開數據

目前,根據攜程度假產品預訂數據顯示,上海、北京、廣州、成都、深圳、杭州、南京、武漢、重慶、西安,預計是國慶旅遊十大客源地。

數據來源:攜程

根據攜程旅遊度假產品預訂搜索數據顯示,三亞、麗江、昆明、蘭州、廈門、張家界、九寨溝、拉薩、貴陽、成都預訂搜索人氣最高。同時,相關的自由行、跟團遊、定製遊、租車等產品已經提前進入國慶預訂階段,行情較為火爆。

數據來源:攜程

“選擇超過 5 天的國內跨省長途跟團遊、自由行產品的人數和比例,預計將創出今年的新高。”——攜程

此外,文化和旅遊部在5日舉辦的“世界旅遊合作與發展大會”上表示,正在編制的旅遊業“十四五”規劃中將以高質量發展為主線,謀劃推出一批重大政策、項目、舉措,而這一規劃也或將進一步為我國旅遊業的良性發展帶來活力源泉。

基於此,隨着A股旅遊標的的中報相比一季度財報數據有了較大的改觀,十一假期的臨近或將進一步釋放改善旅遊消費服務標的基本面的預期,進而驅動行業不斷向正向復甦進程行進

例如,中青旅發2020年上半年實現營業收入25.55億元,同比下滑56.34%;歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤虧損1.57億元,較上年同期下降141.05%。雖然景區版塊業績受疫情衝擊明顯,但二季度已逐步復甦,烏鎮景區實現營業收入1.89億元,同比下降77.89%,實現淨利潤 6,452.16 萬元;古北水鎮景區實現營業收入 1.25 億元,同比下降 70.29%,實現淨利潤-2.09 億元;

同程藝龍2020年二季度同程藝龍實現營收12億元,同比下降24.6%,期內經調整淨利潤1.96億元,同比下降43.2%。在交通票務服務方面,現營收7.26億元,已達到去年同期的近八成;住宿預訂服務快速回升,實現營收3.84億元,已恢復至去年同期的近七成。用户增長方面,月活躍用户已回升至1.76億,基本恢復至去年同期水平,月付費用户達到1860萬。

中信證券指出,跨省團隊旅遊的恢復以及景區遊客限流上調對行業的復甦均有積極影響,隨着國慶和中秋雙節的臨近,行業熱度有望復甦。從中期角度仍然推薦以下兩條投資主線:一是邏輯清晰且壁壘較強的免税行業;二是對門票收入依賴較低且具備異地複製能力的優質景區類公司。

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