《大行報告》花旗調整內銀股目標價 首選建行(00939.HK)及招行(03968.HK)
花旗發表研究報告,指出該行所覆蓋的內地銀行企業第二季撥備前利潤按年增4%,較首季增8%有所放緩,主要是因為費用收入增長疲弱,交易收入減少及成本收入比率上升所致。由於政治壓力加劇了不良貸款的處置及加強撥備,稅後純利自首季的增5.3%,放緩至第二季的跌24.9%。由於大部分內銀在第二季都公布類似的盈利增長,看到市場正聚焦更多在撥備前利潤的表現,以區分各銀行的實際營運趨勢。
該行估計,內地銀行體系的不良貸款形成及撥備總額在今年分別升至3.8萬億及3.4萬億元人民幣,意味或潛在拖累今年銀行業盈利39%。花旗預期某些銀行,包括郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、中信銀行(00998.HK)、民生銀行(01988.HK)、徽商銀行(03698.HK)在盈利大幅下跌的情況下面臨資本壓力,或不得不降低派息比率、配股集資及減慢貸款增長。
該行預期內銀2020至2022年各年的稅後溢利增長平均分別是跌17.7%、升1.8%及升14.8%。由於整個行業受壓,估計有10%的銀行貸款將會計入撥備或在2020年底前被註銷,而目前的估值反映出不良貸款率為21%,料10月底內銀公布第三季業績後或有更多買入機會。花旗上調民生銀行評級,由「中性」升至「買入」,首選建設銀行(00939.HK)及招商銀行(03968.HK)。
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