不漲！國內油價調整大概率再擱淺，年內第十一次
來源：中新經緯
4日24時，國內成品油調價窗口將再次開啟。據機構預測，國際油價高位震盪，受此影響，新一輪成品油調價大概率擱淺，國內油價或暫停上漲步伐。
高位受阻，國際油價大幅回落
本輪計價週期內，國際油價初期短暫橫盤後攀高，刷新近幾月來高點，此後受阻回落，美、布兩油更是雙雙單日跌超2%。北京時間3日凌晨，國際油價顯著下跌。WTI 10月原油期貨價格跌1.25美元，收於每桶41.51美元，跌幅2.92%；布倫特11月原油期貨價格跌1.15美元，收於每桶44.43美元，跌幅2.52%。
中宇資訊成品油分析師劉標指出，近期國際原油市場的支撐主要來自供應端，颶風影響下墨西哥灣部分鑽井平台關閉工作，原油產量縮減，美國原油庫存持續下滑，供應端收緊態勢支持國際油價走高。不過市場未能延續單邊行情，國際油價很快在高位受阻，阻力主要來自需求端，颶風不僅影響石油生產，也限制了用車需求，疫情又有繼續擴散趨勢。利空因素的發酵使原油市場呈現多空對立局面，國際油價陷入高位震盪，使得本輪成品油價調整再面臨擱淺。
海通期貨認為，從美國能源信息署數據看，由於颶風影響，美國原油庫存大幅下滑900多萬桶，美國原油產量也減少110萬桶，颶風對供給端和需求端都影響巨大，美國的煉廠開工率已經降至80%以下。整體而言，數據仍然利多為主，美國原油庫存已連續六週下滑，但空頭將其作為利多出盡的跡象，盤中大幅打壓油價。如果價格繼續大幅下滑，市場邏輯可能會轉變，若價格收回至原來的區間，震盪行情仍將持續。
國內油價或年內第十一次擱淺
劉標表示，由於國際油價高位震盪，原油市場對於成品油市場缺乏方向性指引，成品油價調整一直處於擱淺預期。
據金聯創測算，截至9月3日第九個工作日，參考原油品種均價為44.90美元/桶，變化率為0.11%，對應的汽柴油零售價上調幅度為5元/噸，未超過50元/噸的調價分界線，本輪調價或擱淺。
若上述預測兑現，此次擱淺將是今年以來國內成品油調價第十一次擱淺，其中有六次因觸發“地板價”保護機制未能調整。截至目前，今年國內成品油市場已經歷十六輪調價窗口，呈現“3漲3跌10擱淺”格局。上一輪調價汽、柴油價格分別上調85元/噸和80元/噸，目前汽油價格累計下調1545元/噸，柴油價格累計下調1490元/噸。
下一輪調價窗口將於2020年9月18日24時開啟，隆眾資訊油品分析師李彥認為，近期國際原油市場利好因素依然穩健，預計下一輪國內成品油價格上調概率較大。
金聯創分析師邊文靜表示，後市來看，國際原油或維持窄幅震盪，受基本面抑制因素居多，反彈動力不足，對國內成品油行情難有明顯支撐。短期內市場觀望情緒難以消除，下游商家入市購進意識謹慎，市場整體成交氛圍保持清淡，成品油價格推漲幅度有限。
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