輕工行業2020年中報綜述：家居需求回升可期,造紙景氣向好，維持“增持”行業評級
機構：華泰證券
評級：增持
疫情衝擊短期影響業績表現，Q2輕工行業顯著修復
A股輕工板塊（剔除ST企業）2020H1實現營收2149億元，同比下滑6.7%；實現歸母淨利潤140億元，同比下滑16.2%，其中Q2經營顯著修復，單季度營收/歸母淨利同比增速分別為+2.5%/-4.4%。展望後續，重點推薦地產交易回暖支撐需求回升的家居板塊，旺季提價逐步落地、景氣持續向好的白卡紙與文化紙板塊，受益消費電子景氣回暖的彩盒包裝以及消費需求穩健、陽光集採政策推動行業發展的文具板塊。
家居：地產交易回暖，下半年需求回升可期
A股27家家居企業（剔除ST企業）2020H1營業收入同比下滑7.9%至407億元，歸母淨利潤同比下滑31.7%至29.3億元，軟體家居收入修復速度快於定製家居，辦公家居出口表現亮眼。建議關注三條主線：1）地產新房及二手房交易回暖支撐家居中長期需求，終端訂單回暖亦會對下半年收入增長形成較好支撐，重點推薦歐派家居、顧家家居。2）精裝滲透率提升+地產竣工不斷回暖驅動下，工裝企業收入有望延續高增長，重點推薦江山歐派、大亞聖象、帝歐家居。3）美國地產銷售數據向好、海外居家辦公習慣養成，辦公家居乃至家居出口均有迅速修復。
造紙：Q2盈利同比下滑，下半年白卡紙/文化紙景氣有望向上
2020H1造紙板塊營收同比下滑3.2%至636億元，歸母淨利潤同比下滑1.1%至37.9億元，Q2收入增長而利潤下滑系20Q2紙企噸利收窄所致。三季度進入造紙需求旺季，文化紙方面，社會庫存5月以來持續回落，隨着學校逐步開學、教輔需求回升，需求端有望持續改善，6月以來漲價持續落地，企業盈利有望修復，重點推薦太陽紙業。白卡紙方面，Q3傳統旺季拉昇需求，催化紙價上行，中期看APP收購博彙紙業推進順利，行業競爭格局有望優化，需求端“限塑令”帶來的替代性需求亦提供較好成長空間。
包裝：Q2快速修復，行業穩步前行
2020H138家包裝印刷企業共實現營收452億元，同比下滑1.7%，Q2收入顯著修復，20Q1/Q2營收同比分別變動-17.6%/+14.6%；20H1實現歸母淨利31億元，同比下滑18.1%，其中20Q1/Q2同比分別變動-42.3%/+5.4%。5G應用催化智能手機換機需求，進而帶動消費電子包裝消費需求，重點推薦彩盒包裝龍頭裕同科技；電子煙在監管加強後有望在規範中前進，產業鏈標的包括勁嘉股份、集友股份。
文娛輕工：C端零售動銷逐步向好，陽光采購推動辦公集採行業快速發展
零售端，下半年學校陸續開學，終端文具動銷有望持續向好；企業端，受陽光化採購政策影響，辦公用品集採單位增多、採購品類持續豐富，辦公集採行業仍有望延續快速增長，建議持續關注集採SKU豐富、物流配送體系完善、具備電商化對接平台的品牌企業，重點推薦晨光文具、齊心集團。
風險提示：疫情發展不確定性，地產銷售不及預期，紙價大幅波動。
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