交通運輸行業2020年中報業績：客貨景氣分化,細分亮點猶存，維持“中性”行業評級
機構：長江證券
評級：中性
快遞：通達盈利承壓，直營表現亮眼
2020Q2，電商快遞需求快速修復，但競爭持續加劇，盈利顯著承壓，其中，圓通速遞由於航空貨運及國際業務貢獻業績增量，盈利表現超預期。直營快遞表現亮眼，其中，順豐受益於高端消費線上化加速提升，時效件增長超預期；德邦股份由於控量保價政策和成本效率優化，業績向上拐點確認。
航空：收益大幅承壓，業績表現分化
2020Q2，航空板塊收益大幅承壓，業績表現分化：民營優於國營，模式與管理能力分化業績表現。其中，華夏航空獲益於機構運力購買模式，地方政府與機場共擔經營風險，Q2逆勢獲得盈利正增長；春秋航空獲益於低成本經營模式，Q2逆勢擴張國內市場份額，成本優勢支撐業績表現，三大航與吉祥則經營仍面臨較大壓力，貨運部分彌補客運虧損，投資收益拖累業績改善。
機場：業績已觸底，景氣正復甦
2020Q2，國內機場業績底部確認，基本面將迎來環比復甦。免税業務收入確認方式的不同以及航線結構差異分化上市機場Q2收入表現，而產能投產節奏以及防疫支出壓力不同帶來營業成本端的差異，分化上市機場業績，總結看高國際航線佔比的機場業績壓力相較國內市場為主的機場更甚。展望下半年，基於海內外疫情表現，基本面冰點已至，機場行業底部漸過，機場渠道的長期價值將隨國際客流實現均值迴歸。
海運：集運逆勢績優，油運兑現景氣
2020Q2，海運三大子行業表現分化：集運面臨需求大幅下滑的經營逆境，但格局優化後的行業自律性促使運力控制加強，價格同比上漲下行業逆勢績優；油運因油價大跌促成囤油需求大增的逆週期景氣，油運公司業績兑現高景氣；散運行業面臨海外礦產減少和供給增加的雙重壓力，運價低谷徘徊，相關公司業務表現不佳。
鐵路：客運受創明顯，貨運環比改善
2020Q2，鐵路行業客運受創嚴重，客運龍頭受到較大沖擊，經營模式不同促成公司表現分化；貨運業務環比改善，儘管加強成本管控但仍有業績同比下滑。
公路：免費影響仍存，流量回暖已現
2020Q2，高速公路公司仍面臨免費期影響，路橋業務普遍受到衝擊，但龍頭公司相關輔業能夠起到收入和利潤的有效支撐，同時路產質量差異也導致流量回暖的節奏不一。
風險提示：
1.歐美經濟復甦受阻；
2.原油價格大幅上漲；人民幣匯率風；快遞行業爆發惡性價格戰。
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