A／H建材龍頭2020年中報總結：漲價彈性與成長選擇，維持“增持”行業評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
維持建材行業“增持”評級：我們繼續看好水泥金秋攻勢，華東或將彈性領先，推薦龍頭海螺水泥、華新水泥、上峯水泥、塔牌集團；基建彈性冀東水泥，推薦西北祁連山、天山股份、寧夏建材，H股推薦華潤水泥、中國建材；繼續推薦製造業全球龍頭中國巨石、信義玻璃、信義光能、福耀玻璃、中材科技；我們認為精裝房滲透率增加及下游地產商集中度加強雙重槓桿帶動下，重點推薦東方雨虹、中國聯塑；竣工消費端品種，推薦旗濱集團、偉星新材、北新建材等；
水泥是最好的週期品的判斷2020繼續驗證，期待金秋進攻：經歷疫情、洪水的壓力測試，業績依然普遍超預期正增長，繼續驗證水泥是最好週期品的判斷。我們觀察到政策不斷對於基建加碼，伴隨着專項債、一萬億特別國債和中央特殊轉移支付制度的相繼落地，我們看到了中央對於基建託底完成2020年經濟社會目標的決心。而華東在未結束高温天氣下已然水泥熟料提漲兩輪，背後意味着是金秋需求體量可能繼續突破歷史峯值，期待華東彈性領跑金秋。
玻纖行業站在新一輪的景氣復甦起點；我們整體判斷2020-2021年供給端保持淨新增低位。且全球進入需求擴張及品質升級週期，當前國內部分直接紗及合股紗產品已呈現供不應求態勢，9月1日起中國巨石針對內銷新訂單漲價7%，我們認為下半年需求好於上半年，而明年將好於今年，玻纖正站在新一輪景氣週期起點。
玻璃板塊：“V”型反轉再現，邏輯重構。我們認為玻璃行業的供給非擴張週期高窯齡產線已然成為滾動“調控閥”，20Q1受疫情影響，玻璃庫存創歷史峯值，玻璃價格亦單邊下行觸碰2017年後最低點，一季度玻璃企業盈利由此探底；但2020年4-5月9條產線集中停產，疊加竣工需求復甦，二季度玻璃陡峭去庫，價格觸底反轉。2020年與2019年押着相似的韻腳，“V”型反轉再現，而玻璃行業正加速從分散走向集中，雙龍頭競爭格局日漸清晰。
消費建材：B端加速C端築底，現金流看戰略差異：2020Q2消費建板塊整體繼續印證我們從2020H1開始的判斷：地產行業集中度提升與精裝房滲透率的提升正在加大消費建材B端對C端渠道成長性的優勢。Q2竣工端B端消費建材的增速明顯開始追上開工端；而C端受精裝房修的影響其實已經體現的較為充分；東方雨虹的等領先企業開始追求發展質量與發展速度的平衡，其他大部分B端防水，塗料，瓷磚等企業還處於更聚焦增長速度的階段。
風險提示：國內貨幣、房地產宏觀政策風險、原材料成本風險
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