中國宏橋(01378.HK)：電解鋁龍頭王者歸來，全產業鏈佈局保障成本優勢，給予“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
公司全產業鏈完整佈局
公司最大的優勢在於形成“鋁土礦-氧化鋁-電解鋁-鋁加工”全產業鏈配套。公司參股幾內亞豐富的鋁土礦資源，打通了幾內亞到中國沿海工廠的遠洋聯運通道，鋁土礦保障能力強；公司氧化鋁產能可以100%自給，多餘產量外銷，成為國內氧化鋁市場重要的供應商；公司擁有龐大的燃煤發電機組，組建了區域獨立電網，發電成本長期低於行業水平，雲南水電鋁項目投產將會進一步降低單位用電成本，提高清潔能源比例。公司在山東濱州建立了世界上最大的“氧化鋁-電解鋁-鋁加工”產業集羣，與下游加工企業緊密合作，規模效益顯著。
公司產業鏈各環節都具有低成本優勢
公司打通了鋁土礦遠洋聯運通道，運輸效率高且廉價；依靠廉價進口礦和集團自備電廠蒸汽，公司氧化鋁生產極具成本優勢。公司組建了區域獨立電網，用電成本低於行業平均水平。依靠低價氧化鋁和廉價電費，公司電解鋁生產成本位於國內前1/4。雲南項目即將投產，還將起到提量降本的效果。
電解鋁行業迎來高利潤時代
過去兩年行業大減產造成運行產能偏低，疊加電解鋁產能置換政策和燃煤自備電廠監管政策造成電解鋁新增產能投產緩慢，供給端難以快速放量。而消費端，地產後週期利好鋁型材消費，老舊小區改造、新基建、新能源汽車等都是用鋁密集板塊，鋁消費增速有韌性，年內不會過剩，庫存會維持在偏低水平，對鋁價有支撐。原材料氧化鋁相對於電解鋁產能過剩，所以氧化鋁難以侵蝕電解鋁利潤。
風險提示
國內電解鋁消費增速不及預期；公司雲南項目投產進度不及預期。
投資建議：首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級
通過多角度估值，得出公司合理估值區間9-10人民幣元，相對於目前股價有92.5-113.9%的溢價空間。考慮到公司是國內電解鋁產業龍頭，預計公司2020-2022年每股收益1.00/1.06/1.10元，利潤增速分別為40.3%/6.5%/3.7%，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
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