頤海國際(01579.HK)：第三方業務具有強驅動力，維持“買入”評級，目標價140港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：140港元
半年公司收入、業績增速超預期。公司上半年實現營收22.18億元，同比增速34%，實現歸母淨利潤3.99億元，同比增速47.5%，收入、業績增速均超過市場預期，主要繫上半年第三方增速較高、達到77.9%所致。
關聯方業務受到較大影響，第三方業務全面開花。由於海底撈上半年餐飲門店營業收入下滑19.2%，公司關聯方業務受到一定影響，上半年關聯方實現營業收入4.99億元，同比增速下降29.6%。同時，由於上半年家庭端動銷快速增長，第三方業務依然保持較快的增速，上半年第三方業務實現收入16.84億元，同比增速77.9%。目前關聯方和第三方業務收入佔比分別為22.5%/77.5%，第三方業務佔比明顯提升，由於第三方業務毛利率較高，公司盈利能力有望進一步提升。
毛利率提升3.9pct，淨利率提升1.7pct，盈利能力加強。上半年毛利率為41.6%，同比提升3.9pct，主要系第三方業務的毛利率相對關聯方業務的毛利率更高，而上半年第三方佔比大幅提升所致。火鍋調味料中，第三方毛利率為55.8%，同比下降1.2pct，主要繫上半年包材、油脂等成本大幅提升所致。總體來看，上半年公司期間費用率穩定，淨利率為18%，同比提升1.7pct，主要受益於第三方佔比的提高。下半年隨着海底撈堂食業務的恢復，預計關聯方銷售佔比將提升，預計全年毛利率略低於中期毛利率。
下半年有望維持高速增長，上調全年盈利預測。由於第三方火鍋料增速較快，我們上調全年增速至65%（前次預測增速50%），同時由於海底撈下半年業務有望全面恢復，上調關聯方複合調味料增速至20%（前次預測增速-30%），由於上半年關聯方自熱小火鍋數量增速超預期，上調關聯方方便速食收入增速至250%（前次預測增速100%），上調後預計2020-2022年公司EPS分別為1.11、1.68、2.43元，對應8月31日收盤價PE分別為99、65、45倍，維持買入評級。
風險提示：新品不及預期，海底撈人流不及預期，食品安全
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