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天風證券:維持現代牧業(1117.HK)目標價1.56港元 評級買入
格隆匯 09-03 14:18

天風證券指,料現代牧業(1117.HK)盈利能力逆勢提升,維持目標價1.56港元,評級買入。

報告指,現代牧業通過提升奶牛健康,優化飼料結構等一系列措施將公斤奶成本控制在2.27元人民幣/公斤,同比降幅達1.76%。直接飼料成本降至1.75元人民幣/公斤,同比降幅達1.7%。公司品牌奶重新推出市場,上半年聯營工廠收入達4.22億元人民幣,同比增加10%,盈利達0.12億元人民幣,公司依託蒙牛行銷策略主攻三四線城市市場,預計未來品牌奶將持續盈利。

受益於奶牛單產的提升以及有效的成本控制,上半年乳牛養殖業務毛利率37.2%,同比增長2.3%。期間費用率保持穩定,2020上半年公司銷售費用有所上升,銷售費用率3.47%,同比增加0.24pct,基本穩定。上半年行政開支也保持穩定,管理費用率5.12%,同比減少0.26%。

盈利能力上,2020上半年公司淨利潤率7.28%,同比上升2.96%。上半年整體運營維持正常,公司通過降低成本增效、提升單產等方式平穩度過了疫情期,盈利能力不降反升,毛利率的提升得益於總產量的增長以及有效的成本控制,直接飼料成本比去年同期下降了1.7%。

另外,隨中小型牧場的退出,未來原奶將主要由規模牧場生產提供,而規模養殖的行業壁壘高,公司將更能得益行業週期向上的紅利,發揮行業龍頭的優勢。 由於2020年上半年營收和淨利潤皆符合預期,維持預測,預計公司2020-2022年實現營收同比增長6%、7%、6%,淨利同比增長37%、20%、53%,2020年及2021年各為4.67億元及5.6億元人民幣。

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