大和:維持內銀行業中性評級 給予建行、招行、工行H股買入評級
大和發表研究報告指,覆蓋的內地銀行今年第二季的撥備前利潤(PPOP)總增長由首季的7.2%,放緩至次季的3.7%,主要由於強勁的資產和貸款增長抵銷了淨息差的收窄。該行對行業維持中性評級,並認為國有銀行在過去3至4年,對貸款進行嚴格分類和確認,並進行了更多的資產負債表管理,因此國有銀行的信貸成本壓力將較股份制銀行低,在有關方面,大和推薦建設銀行(0939.HK),予買入評級,目標價7.6港元。
大和表示,由於強勁的資產規模擴張和淨息差跌幅收窄,預計下半年的PPOP將維持有正增長,並且略有回升。不過,新冠肺炎疫情大流行,以及中國銀保監會積極的不良貸款處置,資產質量持續下行,信貸成本可能仍將維持於較高水平,這將對銀行下半年的收益帶來壓力,但大和預計,由於工業利潤率連續回升,資產質量的惡化有所緩解。
該行指,整體而言,認為第三季的盈利將繼續較去年同期下跌,並認為未來1至2個月將會是讓投資者對財政、貨幣政策,監管環境和第四季的收益趨勢有更好了解的時期。鑑於最近資產收益率正常化、國內工業利潤恢復等積極的跡象,該行對行業的悲觀情緒有所減輕,但預料將需要1至2個季度才能逐步體現。給予工商銀行(1398.HK)、招商銀行(3968.HK)買入評級,目標價分別為6港元、44.5港元。
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