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野村:壽險最壞情況已過 維持中國平安(2318.HK)為行業長期核心股份
格隆匯 09-03 12:52

野村發表研究報告指,該行覆蓋的內地保險企業上半年業績不佳,淨利潤平均按年下跌26%,主要由於去年上半年的一次性退税,導致基數較高;政府債券收益率下跌;以及新冠肺炎疫情下的信貸成本增加。由於高質量的保險業務,該行繼續維持中國平安(2318.HK)為保險業的長期核心股份,並預料倘若利率反彈,新華保險(1336.HK)、中國人壽(2628.HK)及中國太平(0966.HK)將有更好表現。

野村表示,對於壽險而言,由於疫情,上半年的新業務價值增長放緩,利潤率亦在下跌,該行覆蓋的上市壽險企業,包括友邦中國,上半年的新業務價值平均按年跌14%;大多數企業的新業務價值率下跌,主要由於疫情嚴重影響了高利潤產品的線下銷售。另一方面,各公司的代理人數仍保持穩定。至於產險,該行認為,產險公司的保費收入已從疫情中恢復,上半年的綜合比率基本穩定。

該行預期,由於股票市場自7月份以來,出現強勁反彈,或可緩解政府債券收益率持續下跌對公司下半年收益的壓力,加上內地的疫情似乎已受控,相信壽險業務的最壞情況可能已經過去。不過,產險業務可能仍面對挑戰,因為汽車保險行業出現轉變,以及下半年的自然災害導致保險損失增加。

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