《大行报告》大摩料澳门今年赌收跌75% 料末季调整EBITDA扭亏 升银娱及澳博目标价
摩根士丹利发表报告,指濠赌股今年第二季大致录EBITDA亏损20亿美元及净亏损30亿美元,但该行两只行业首选股包括澳博控股(00880.HK)及新濠博亚(MLCO.O)在次季提升市场份额,但无论如何,基於澳门博彩收入按年大跌95%下,难以藉此预测今年下半年行业市场份额趋势。
该行指,维持对澳门今年赌收按年下跌75%预测(至739.47亿澳门元,相当2019年的25%),随着内地放宽个人游签注,料澳门贵宾厅表现(料按年跌69%)可优於中场(料按年跌78%),并维持2021年赌收(2,514.21亿澳门元按年升2.4倍,相当2019年的86%)及2022年赌收(3,017.05亿澳门元按年升20%,相当2019年的103%)预测大致不变。
大摩料濠赌业今年第三季经物业调整EBITDA亏损8.89亿美元(对比第二季亏损9.8亿美元)、料今年第四季经物业调整EBITDA按季扭亏为盈,录4.93亿美元。该行料濠赌业今年经物业调整EBITDA亏损12.01亿美元、料2021年及2022年经物业调整EBITDA各为81.04亿美元及102.05亿美元。
该行表示,下调永利澳门(01128.HK)目标价由18元降至17元,因利息支出上升;该行上调银河娱乐(00027.HK)目标价由53元升至62元,反映新项目因素;并上调对澳博目标价由11元升至12元,以反映「上葡京」项目EBITDA较高预测。
大摩指濠赌股近三个月累升17%,跑赢恒指同期约7个百分点,基於内地对澳门旅游限制的放宽,该行料澳门至年底旅客及赌收可持续改善,估计行业重回增长时,投资者将进行重估。该行重申对濠赌股「吸引」看法。
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