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《大行報告》大摩料澳門今年賭收跌75% 料末季調整EBITDA扭虧 升銀娛及澳博目標價
阿思達克 09-03 12:24
摩根士丹利發表報告,指濠賭股今年第二季大致錄EBITDA虧損20億美元及淨虧損30億美元,但該行兩隻行業首選股包括澳博控股(00880.HK)及新濠博亞(MLCO.O)在次季提升市場份額,但無論如何,基於澳門博彩收入按年大跌95%下,難以藉此預測今年下半年行業市場份額趨勢。

該行指,維持對澳門今年賭收按年下跌75%預測(至739.47億澳門元,相當2019年的25%),隨著內地放寬個人遊簽注,料澳門貴賓廳表現(料按年跌69%)可優於中場(料按年跌78%),並維持2021年賭收(2,514.21億澳門元按年升2.4倍,相當2019年的86%)及2022年賭收(3,017.05億澳門元按年升20%,相當2019年的103%)預測大致不變。

大摩料濠賭業今年第三季經物業調整EBITDA虧損8.89億美元(對比第二季虧損9.8億美元)、料今年第四季經物業調整EBITDA按季扭虧為盈,錄4.93億美元。該行料濠賭業今年經物業調整EBITDA虧損12.01億美元、料2021年及2022年經物業調整EBITDA各為81.04億美元及102.05億美元。

該行表示,下調永利澳門(01128.HK)目標價由18元降至17元,因利息支出上升;該行上調銀河娛樂(00027.HK)目標價由53元升至62元,反映新項目因素;並上調對澳博目標價由11元升至12元,以反映「上葡京」項目EBITDA較高預測。

大摩指濠賭股近三個月累升17%,跑贏恆指同期約7個百分點,基於內地對澳門旅遊限制的放寬,該行料澳門至年底旅客及賭收可持續改善,估計行業重回增長時,投資者將進行重估。該行重申對濠賭股「吸引」看法。

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