新高教集團(02001.HK)：半年報符合預期；新增專修學校豐富辦學層次，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.10港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.10港元
上半年淨利潤同比增長 18.7%
受到華中學校在 2019 年下半年並表的影響，上半年新高教在校生共 11.9 萬人。上半年收入人民幣 6.4 億元，同比增加 28.0%；毛利率 52.7%，同比下跌 0.9 百分點。公司運營效率顯著提升，上半年運營開支同比減少 23.7%。期內淨利潤人民幣 2.4 億，同比增長18.7%。因為疫情而部分學校的教學安排做出調整，學費收入約人民幣 6400 萬遞延至 7-8月確認。撥回遞延學費收入後，公司上半年收入同比增長 40.7%，毛利率 53.0%，與去年同期持平。調整後淨利潤人民幣 3.0 億，大幅增長 48.9%。為應對下半年的不確定因素，以及獨立學院轉設等發展，上半年公司的有息負債增加，導致利息開支增加 31%，但公司的負債指標持續優化，平均利率同比下降。
收購專修學院，打造收入多元化
新高教同時公佈收購雲南愛因科技專修學院 100%股權。學院成立於 1999 年，提供線上線下成人職業培訓課程，包括電腦培訓、會計培訓、學歷提升課程等。據管理層介紹，現有在校生 5000 多人，去年利潤約人民幣 600 萬，新高教以約市盈率 6.4 倍左右的價格收購。近年政府提倡職業培訓，公司預期增加承接政府部門項目，以及開拓與原有學校的疊加效應。專修學院將為公司帶來新的收入來源。新高教將繼續貫徹“高大輕”的發展策略，夯實“內功”後再尋找外延增長動力。
預計 FY20E 淨利潤同比上升 39.5%；提高目標價至港元 7.10
預測 2020/21 學年在校生人數 12.9 萬人，同比增加 9.6%。我們上調 FY20E/FY21E 毛利率以反應毛利率擴張。預測 FY20E/FY21E 淨利潤為人民幣 5.4 億/6.3 億，同比上升39.5%/17.6%。我們輕微調升目標價至港元 7.10（從港元 6.80），對應為 15 倍 FY21E 市盈率。目前股價分別對應於 14.6 倍/12.4 倍 FY20E/FY21E 市盈率。公司已公佈將財報年結更改為 8 月，與學校週期相同，公司將於 10 月公佈截止 8 月的 FY19/20 全年業績。
投資風險
1） 招生低於預期；2）民辦教育政策風險。
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