微創醫療(00853.HK)：業績受疫情影響，着重長期成長性，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
收入下滑 21.8%，業績受疫情影響。公司公告 2020 年上半年業績：收入 3.07 億美元，同比下滑 21.8%（剔除匯率影響下滑 19.7%）；毛利 2.18 億美元，同比下滑 22.7%；虧損 0.69 億美元，去年同期利潤0.61 美元；歸母淨虧損 0.66 億元，去年同期盈利 0.65 億美元。
大動脈及外周業務增長快速，心血管介入、骨科及心律受 COVID-19影響較大。心血管業務收入 0.88 億美元（YoY-29.1%）。隨着Firekingfisher 在 7 月獲證，公司在中國市場的支架產品組合進一步豐 富。大動脈及外周血管收入 30.5 百萬美元（YoY +25.0%），胸主手術急診為主，受疫情影響小，增長靚麗。神經介入產品收入 10.9 百萬美元（YoY-0.9%）。VitaFlowTM 瓣膜系統收入 5.2 百萬美元，覆蓋醫院快速增加中。骨科業務收入 0.87 億美元（YoY-22.8%），其中，國際收入 0.77 億美元（YoY-24.2%），6 月北美地區已出現同比增長；中國骨科業務收入 9.8 百萬美元（YoY-12%）。國產全髖關節置換系統於今年上半年獲證上市，隨着產品線獲證的齊全，有望受益中國市場的進口替代和滲透率的提升。心律管理收入 0.83 億美元（YoY-20.2%），其中國際 0.80 億美元（YoY-20.3%），中國 2.8 百萬美元。中國 Q2 開始恢復且每月植入穩步提升。雖然疫情暫時影響到公司收入增長，但必須看到公司研發創新有序推進，產品出海註冊仍在加快，2020 年上半年研發投入 0.73 億美元，同比增長 7.1%，研發費用率 23.7%。
盈利預測與投資建議：考慮 COVID-19 的影響，預計 2020-2022 公司收入增速 0.6%/14.3%/15.7%。採用 DCF 估值方法得到公司合理價值為 45.32 港元/股。公司引領中國多個高端器械細分領域的進口替代，堅持研發投入，產品不斷升級換代，未來以創新推動持續成長，國內業務的高成長和海外銷售規模的逐步擴大可期，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：產品銷售不達預期；研發進度低於預期；行業政策風險。
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