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惠譽料內銀下半年純利跌勢加快 淨息差收窄壓抑收入增長
阿思達克 09-02 15:10
評級機構惠譽發表報告指,今年下半年內地銀行利潤料加快下滑,因監管機構目標處理不良貸款規模較上半年增加超過一倍。內地銀行上半年整體純利按年跌9.4%至約1萬億元人民幣(下同),所有獲惠譽覆蓋的商業銀行均錄純利下跌,主因預期信貸虧損增加及淨息差收窄。在該行覆蓋內銀中,招行(03968.HK)表現傑出,純利按年僅跌1.5%。

報告指出,即使次季內地實際GDP按年升3.2%,扭轉首季收縮勢頭,惟內銀整體第二季純利按季仍大幅倒退,內地政府6月指示內銀支持經濟,不惜以利潤回報為代價。惠譽稱,中銀保監目標今年全年處理3.4萬億元不良貸款,當中1.1萬億元已於上半年處理。相比之下,2019年全年共處理2.3萬億元不良貸款。

惠譽稱,內銀上半年續增加其風險加權資產,核心資本比率普遍下滑。上半年貸款按半年增加8%,與該行預期全年增長14%相符,由於傳統上內銀上半年貸款增長較快。現時仍未清楚何時有內銀被劃為本地系統性重要銀行並須符合8.5%核心資本率最低標準,即使許多中型銀行上半年已達至該標準。雖然盈利能力面對挑戰,該行料內銀仍期望派發全年股息,可能會限制其增長速度。

報告補充,由於淨息差收窄,內銀收入增長受挑戰。隨著大部分銀行近乎完成改用貸款市場報價利率(LPR)為定價基準,政府更廣泛下降貸款成本的指令,將持續壓抑內銀資產收益,而存款競爭激烈將推高融資成本。整體而言,惠譽所覆蓋內銀將維持相若風險胃納,但相信其盈利能力及資本化受壓情況在今年餘下時間及明年將會持續。

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