植耀輝: 科技股續現強勢 港股續拉鋸
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,科技股走勢之強不用筆者說大家也知,「準藍籌」小米(01810.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)自宣布納入後至今,累積升幅分別達到66.9%、22.9%及14.6%。當然上升有其他利好因素,包括業績理想及擁分拆概念。但不容置疑的是,三隻股份的加入,將令恆指內新經濟/科技類比重增加。
美股亦因近似情況而須「去舊迎新」,納入Salesforce(CRM.US)、Amgen(AMGN.US)及Honeywell(HON.US)成為新道指成分股。坊間已有很多Salesforce之論述,筆者反而想談談對道指之影響。相比港股,道指之調整更為「有趣」。今次調整緣自於蘋果公司(AAPL.US)將股份「一拆四」有關。由於道指採取價格加權方式,即股價越高,對指數之影響力越大。原先蘋果公司為道指第一大權重股,但拆細後其權重將跌至第17位,而科技股佔道指比重亦由27.6%跌至20.3%。而在加入Salesforce後,科技股比重將增至23.1%。由於科技股依然強勢,可能很快蘋果公司之比重又會再次進佔前五矣!
但較令人婉惜的是,作為道指中歷史最悠久之成分股能源股埃克森美孚(XOM.US),早於1928年便被納入道指,但始終敵不過新經濟股份,最終亦被剔除。由此亦可引證經濟重心之變遷與指數之間的關係。
亦要談談港股最新表現。港股周一(8月31日)雖一度衝破250天線阻力,惟最終仍無功而還,事實上自7月初至今恆指大致於24,500至25,800點上落,相信短期內仍難扭轉此格局,畢竟中美關係仍是一大變數,而且企業盈利展望亦充滿不確定性。另外,要留意美國總統特朗普在選舉前肯定會動作多多,因此環球金融市場在9月下旬至11月初肯定相當震盪,屆時大家亦要有有心理準備去應對及早作部署。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有阿里巴巴及Amgen股份)~
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