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惠誉料内银下半年纯利跌势加快 净息差收窄压抑收入增长
阿思达克 09-02 15:10
评级机构惠誉发表报告指,今年下半年内地银行利润料加快下滑,因监管机构目标处理不良贷款规模较上半年增加超过一倍。内地银行上半年整体纯利按年跌9.4%至约1万亿元人民币(下同),所有获惠誉覆盖的商业银行均录纯利下跌,主因预期信贷亏损增加及净息差收窄。在该行覆盖内银中,招行(03968.HK)表现杰出,纯利按年仅跌1.5%。

报告指出,即使次季内地实际GDP按年升3.2%,扭转首季收缩势头,惟内银整体第二季纯利按季仍大幅倒退,内地政府6月指示内银支持经济,不惜以利润回报为代价。惠誉称,中银保监目标今年全年处理3.4万亿元不良贷款,当中1.1万亿元已於上半年处理。相比之下,2019年全年共处理2.3万亿元不良贷款。

惠誉称,内银上半年续增加其风险加权资产,核心资本比率普遍下滑。上半年贷款按半年增加8%,与该行预期全年增长14%相符,由於传统上内银上半年贷款增长较快。现时仍未清楚何时有内银被划为本地系统性重要银行并须符合8.5%核心资本率最低标准,即使许多中型银行上半年已达至该标准。虽然盈利能力面对挑战,该行料内银仍期望派发全年股息,可能会限制其增长速度。

报告补充,由於净息差收窄,内银收入增长受挑战。随着大部分银行近乎完成改用贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为定价基准,政府更广泛下降贷款成本的指令,将持续压抑内银资产收益,而存款竞争激烈将推高融资成本。整体而言,惠誉所覆盖内银将维持相若风险胃纳,但相信其盈利能力及资本化受压情况在今年余下时间及明年将会持续。

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