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植耀辉: 科技股续现强势 港股续拉锯
阿思达克 09-02 12:07
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,科技股走势之强不用笔者说大家也知,「准蓝筹」小米(01810.HK)、药明生物(02269.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)自宣布纳入後至今,累积升幅分别达到66.9%、22.9%及14.6%。当然上升有其他利好因素,包括业绩理想及拥分拆概念。但不容置疑的是,三只股份的加入,将令恒指内新经济/科技类比重增加。

美股亦因近似情况而须「去旧迎新」,纳入Salesforce(CRM.US)、Amgen(AMGN.US)及Honeywell(HON.US)成为新道指成分股。坊间已有很多Salesforce之论述,笔者反而想谈谈对道指之影响。相比港股,道指之调整更为「有趣」。今次调整缘自於苹果公司(AAPL.US)将股份「一拆四」有关。由於道指采取价格加权方式,即股价越高,对指数之影响力越大。原先苹果公司为道指第一大权重股,但拆细後其权重将跌至第17位,而科技股占道指比重亦由27.6%跌至20.3%。而在加入Salesforce後,科技股比重将增至23.1%。由於科技股依然强势,可能很快苹果公司之比重又会再次进占前五矣!

但较令人婉惜的是,作为道指中历史最悠久之成分股能源股埃克森美孚(XOM.US),早於1928年便被纳入道指,但始终敌不过新经济股份,最终亦被剔除。由此亦可引证经济重心之变迁与指数之间的关系。

亦要谈谈港股最新表现。港股周一(8月31日)虽一度冲破250天线阻力,惟最终仍无功而还,事实上自7月初至今恒指大致於24,500至25,800点上落,相信短期内仍难扭转此格局,毕竟中美关系仍是一大变数,而且企业盈利展望亦充满不确定性。另外,要留意美国总统特朗普在选举前肯定会动作多多,因此环球金融市场在9月下旬至11月初肯定相当震荡,届时大家亦要有有心理准备去应对及早作部署。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有阿里巴巴及Amgen股份)~

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