海通国际首予京东(09618.HK)「跑赢大市」评级 目标价455元
海通国际近日发表报告表示,首予京东(09618.HK)「跑赢大市」评级,H股目标价455元,采用分部估值法,该行预计京东2020年至2022年净利润预测各207亿、180亿及252亿元人民币,各升70%、跌13%及升40%;料其2020年至2022年非通用国际会计准则净利润153亿、229亿及312亿元人民币,各增长43%、50%及36%。
该行指,京东注重持续有质量增长,以技术创新、规模经济和更好的产能利用率实现降本增效,提升用户体验,2017年向零售基础设施服务商转型,定位以供应链为基础的技术与服务型企业;第二是现金流保障高效扩张:2019年收入5,769亿人民币、总交易收入20,854亿元人民币、年活跃买家3.62亿,过去五年复合增长率各38%、54%及32%,其中零售集团营业利润率由2016年0.89%增至2019年2.49%。
第三是高壁垒,京东至2019年底物流投入累计180亿人民币、逾700个仓库1,700万平米,2019年研发投入146亿。该行认为,公司重资产投入构筑了几乎不可复制的强势竞争壁垒,且强化用户粘性,十年老用户年购买次数,由2009年的4.4次增至2018年的31.5次。
海通国际表示,京东旗下子集团独立运营,全面开放赋能。第一是京东物流(公司持股81.4%),中小件、大件、冷链、B2B、跨境和众包六大网络,测算2019年收入560亿至580亿元人民币;第二是京东数科(公司持股36.8%),由京东金融转型以AI驱动产业数字化的科技企业,2020年6月投後估值292亿美元;第三是京东健康(公司持股86.5%),互联网+医疗,2019年11月投後估值近70亿美元;第四是京东工业品(公司持股89.3%),工业品电商,国内市占率51.2%,2020年5月投後估值21.5亿美元。
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