中國科培(01890.HK)：學額大幅增長，外延併購貢獻利潤增量，給予”買入“評級，目標價：6.53港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.53港元
公司上半年內生增長強勁：
公司2020上半年實現收益人民幣4.19億元，同比增長16.6%；毛利3.09億元，同比增長22.6%；淨利潤3.21億元，同比增長31.1%；核心淨利潤3.11億元，同比增長27.0%；每股基本盈利0.16元。學費收入是公司主要收入來源，19/20學年廣東理工學院本專科在校生同比增11%，學費收入同比增25.7%，其中本科學費佔比67.9%。上半年哈石油營收約5,900萬元，以3,200萬淨利潤並表，若模擬合併報表，收入同比增長可達33%。
學額大幅增長，本科學費同比提升10%以上，內生增長穩健：
2020/21學年，廣東理工學院本專科學額大幅增長64%，主要受益於專升本擴招。本科學額約1.1萬人，同比增38%，其中專升本學額大幅提升至3,600人，較去年同比提升11倍，實際錄取數3,792人。專科學額6,572人，同比增143%。廣東理工本科學費和哈石油學費分別提升12%和10%，中職和專科分別提升10%和5%。
授信空間儲備充足，投後管理能力初露鋒芒，外延併購值得期待：
截至2020年6月30日，公司持有貨幣資金8.6億元，短期和長期有息負債分別為1.5億和2.3億元。2020年1月公司獲得浦發銀行23億元授信，因此公司可支配資金規模高30億以上。自3月實施託管，已確定哈石油3,000人的宿舍擴建方案，實現淨利率為57%，較去年提升4個百分點。
維持買入評級，維持目標價8.2港元：
今年以來，全行業年專升本擴招130%以上，高職院校擴招40%以上。公司受益於專升本及高職擴招，學額增長幅度遠高於行業平均。我們預計公司旗下3所學校未來將保持較強的內生增長動力，在不考慮新的外延併購的情況下，未來3年淨利潤CAGR有望保持20%以上。公司授信空間儲備充足，今明兩年資本開支可控，外延併購值得期待。結合行業估值情況，我們給予公司2021年20倍目標PE，上調目標價至8.2港元，較現價有25.6%的漲幅空間，維持“買入”評級。
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