中國生物製藥(01177.HK):疫情影響半年度業績,國際化加速,維持”買入“評級,目標價17.94 港元
機構:華西證券
評級:買入
目標價:17.94 港元
事件概述
公司公佈2020年半年報,實現營收126.48億元(+1.0%),歸母淨利潤12.13億元(-16.0%);扣除權益投資及金融產公允價值損益、應占無形資產年度攤銷費用及可轉換債券之公允價值利潤和實際利息,調整後的歸母淨利潤17.61億元(+5.2%)。
疫情影響半年度業績,腫瘤板塊持續高增長
受到疫情影響,醫院門診和住院率均有所下滑,公司整體營收增速下滑。分板塊看,抗腫瘤板塊上半年銷售收入40.18億元(+56.2%)、肝病領域由於集採擴面影響收入22.49億元(-31.7%)。隨着抗腫瘤板塊新產品安羅替尼、來那度胺、達沙替尼等產品持續放量,抗腫瘤板塊將是公司業績最大驅動。
研發與BD豐富創新管線,國際化加速
面對審評加速、醫保談判常規化等新的機遇與挑戰,公司在創新方面加大研發費用投入、擴增專業研發團隊;BD方面積極通過licence-in/out、合營公司、戰略投資等方式,加速豐富公司創新藥的產品管線。隨着公司新CEO上市,公司在國際化的拓展將加速,與全球藥企的BD交易將逐漸增加。
盈利預測及投資建議
受疫情影響調整公司盈利預測,預計公司2020-2022年收入由282/343/433調整為268/328/418億元,分別同比增長11%/22%/28%,歸母淨利潤由33/41/52調整為32/38/47億元,分別同比增長16%/20%/24%,當前股價對應2020-2022年PE分別為55/46/37倍,維持“買入”評級,維持17.94港元目標價。
風險提示
創新藥醫保談判價格大幅下降、新藥研發及進度不及預期、仿製藥集採未中標或價格大幅下降風險。

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