《大行报告》中金:大型内银中期净利润跌逾11%符预期 但认为已熬过最困难时期
中金发表报告表示,随着内银相继公布中期业绩,上半年国有大行(工行(01398.HK)、农行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、交行(03328.HK)及邮储银行(01658.HK))营收、拨备前利润(PPOP)、净利润平均各升4.6%、升4.5%及跌11.2%,符合市场预期。虽然利率环境走低且让利实体经济,大行营收端依然实现一定增长,且成本控制良好,资产质量的波动性较小。该行判断,2020年是内银行业经营面临最大挑战的一年(息差、资产质量、监管环境),但内银行业已熬过最困难的时期。
该行指,上半年国有大行存款、贷款按年增长12%及11%,较上年末增长8%及7%;息差按年收窄9个基点,净利息和净手续费收入按年分别增长6%及2%;成本控制优异,成本收入比按年基本持平於30%;不良率为1.44%,按年仅增加4个基点;在监管做实利润的导向下,大行平均信用成本达1.32%(按年增加30个基点),是利润按年负增长11%的主要原因。
大行中,营收和拨备前利润增速最快的分别是建行和农行;工行和交行手续费收入占比和增速分别领先;资本角度,建行和工行的核心一级资本充足率领先,而邮储银行的资本充足率相对较低。
中金称向前看,内银经营环境可以概括为流动性相对宽松、资产质量压力见顶回落、监管环境边际放松;行业内部头部效应愈加明显,在客户经营、科技应用、风险控制上有优势的银行将有望获得更大的经济利润市场份额。由此,该行预测2020/2021年行业营收增长5.1%及5.5%,在2020年利润收缩13.5%的预测基础上,2021年利润有望实现2.6%的正增长。
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