蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)：高端化成效顯著，Q2實現強勁復甦，維持“買入”評級，目標價44.0 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：44.0 港元
投資要點
1H2020 營收同比-5.8%，Q2 實現強勁復甦： 公司上半年營業收入 375.3 億元，較去年同期減少 5.8%；歸母淨利潤 11.6 億元，同比下降 42.1%。若剔除君樂寶和貝拉米的並表影響，蒙牛自身收 入同比增長 9.4%。分季度看，Q1 由於渠道提前備貨迎接春節，隨後疫情爆 發導致渠道庫存擠壓，渠道為清庫存加大促銷力度，導致收入較同期持平， 歸母淨虧損 1.27 億元。Q2 公司輕裝上陣，動銷恢復，加上有效的費用控制， 收入和歸母淨利潤同比分別增加 19.2%/86.2%，實現強勁復甦。
各業務均獲增長，高端化成效顯著： 1H2020 液態奶/冰淇凌/奶粉/其他的營業收入分別為 325.7/22.3/22.8/3.24 億 元，同比變動 10.6%/2.0%/29.8%/40.9%。公司高端化進展成效顯著。上半 年奶粉/高端鮮奶/奶酪成長迅速，同比分別增長 29.8%/97.6%/120%；從單 品上看，特侖蘇同比+19%（其中，特侖蘇夢幻蓋佔比達 25%），真果粒+11%， 定位於高端鮮奶的每日鮮語同比+177%，在份額上繼續保持高端鮮奶第一 品牌。
行業景氣度持續，下半年促銷力度或將減小： 牛奶作為增強人體免疫力的健康飲品，國民對健康的訴求有助行業保持較 高的景氣度，預期蒙牛作為行業龍頭將會持續受益。公司本身也在修煉內 功，每年力爭保持 30-50 個基點經營利潤率的改善，一方面來自於品類結 構的持續性優化，一方面將繼續加強營銷費用的精益化管理。下半年，因 原奶供應仍然緊缺，預期公司也會適當縮減促銷力度，緩解盈利壓力及競 爭態勢。
維持“買入”評級，目標價 44.0 港元： 乳製品具有必選消費屬性，疫情推動消費者的健康意識和營養意識提升， 行業維持高景氣度。公司高端化成效顯著，產品結構將持續性優化，作為 龍頭可享估值溢價。預計公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為 0.87/1.32/1.56 元， 目標價 44.0 港元，對應 2021 年 30 倍 PE，維持“買入”評級。
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