《大行報告》中金:大型內銀中期淨利潤跌逾11%符預期 但認為已熬過最困難時期
中金發表報告表示,隨著內銀相繼公布中期業績,上半年國有大行(工行(01398.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、交行(03328.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK))營收、撥備前利潤(PPOP)、淨利潤平均各升4.6%、升4.5%及跌11.2%,符合市場預期。雖然利率環境走低且讓利實體經濟,大行營收端依然實現一定增長,且成本控制良好,資產質量的波動性較小。該行判斷,2020年是內銀行業經營面臨最大挑戰的一年(息差、資產質量、監管環境),但內銀行業已熬過最困難的時期。
該行指,上半年國有大行存款、貸款按年增長12%及11%,較上年末增長8%及7%;息差按年收窄9個基點,淨利息和淨手續費收入按年分別增長6%及2%;成本控制優異,成本收入比按年基本持平於30%;不良率為1.44%,按年僅增加4個基點;在監管做實利潤的導向下,大行平均信用成本達1.32%(按年增加30個基點),是利潤按年負增長11%的主要原因。
大行中,營收和撥備前利潤增速最快的分別是建行和農行;工行和交行手續費收入佔比和增速分別領先;資本角度,建行和工行的核心一級資本充足率領先,而郵儲銀行的資本充足率相對較低。
中金稱向前看,內銀經營環境可以概括為流動性相對寬鬆、資產質量壓力見頂回落、監管環境邊際放鬆;行業內部頭部效應愈加明顯,在客戶經營、科技應用、風險控制上有優勢的銀行將有望獲得更大的經濟利潤市場份額。由此,該行預測2020/2021年行業營收增長5.1%及5.5%,在2020年利潤收縮13.5%的預測基礎上,2021年利潤有望實現2.6%的正增長。
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