中國東方教育(00667.HK)2020中報點評：疫情影響逐步減輕，重回增長軌道，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
收入利潤下滑，疫情影響逐步減輕
2020H1 實現營收 15.17 億元（-16.8%），歸母淨利潤 2.43 億元（-22.4%）。毛利率 57.5%（-3.3%），淨利率 16.0%（-1.1%）。銷售、管理、財務費用率分別為 24.2%（+6.7%）、17.5%（+1.9%）、4.6%。收入利潤受疫情衝擊較大，但公司在疫情穩定後快速開展復學，目前各業務線基本恢復常態化運營。隨着招生教學恢復和下半年新校投入運營，下半年業績有望迴歸增長狀態。
學費提升，招生結構持續改善
2020H1 年多業務線學費較 2019H1 均有所增長，體現出公司強大的課程研發能力。三年期長期招生比例持續上升，2017-2020H1 三年期學生佔總平均培訓人次比例分別為 19.4%、27.7%、34.5%。長期學員中三年期課程參培佔比的提高增加了學員結構的穩定性，降低了招生壓力和部分銷售開支，對公司保持長期高質量的發展具有積極作用。
新品牌試水，橫縱向擴張並舉
2020H1 公司第一所美業培訓學校在成都開業，該品牌價位與新華電腦接近，上半年新培訓長短期合計 247 人次；與人工智能、醫療保健相關的課程也在研發中。縱向擴張方面，人口 500 萬以上的城市仍將是公司主要下沉範圍，預計未來三年保持每年 20 所的開校速度；成都區域中心現已完成土地收購，預計 2022 年建成。
看好公司標準化擴張能力，維持“買入”評級
公司已有業務仍將持續優化結構、釋放新校招生增量；新業務拓展也已邁開腳步。在國家大力鼓勵職業教育發展的大背景下，我們對公司賽道和自身核心優勢長期看好。下半年開始，新老業務將有望共同助力公司業績重新恢復增長。
考慮到疫情對公司短期招生的影響，小幅下調公司 2020FY 的收入、利潤預測。維持 “買入”評級和合理估值區間 18.10~19.04 港元。
風險提示
新開校和招生不及預期；學校出現負面事件；疫情反覆。
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