中國軟件國際(00354.HK)：業務已恢復，預計下半年提速，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司披露 20H1 業績公告。20H1 收入為 60.59 億元(YoY+9.4%)，歸母淨利 4.01 億元(YoY+10.7%)，疫情影響下，收入和利潤仍維持較快增長。毛利率同比下降 1.1pct 至 27.2%，主要是受新冠疫情的影響，企業復工延遲，部分項目驗收與收入確認時間延後，而成本正常支出；銷售費用率同比略上升0.1pct至4.9%，管理費用率同比收窄為14.8%，其他收入同比+108.2%至 1.26 億。
基石業務：核心大客户穩定增長。20H1 公司技術服務與解決方案業務收入為 48.29 億元（YoY+4.5%），佔收入比重同比下降 3.7pct 至79.7%，增長驅動主要來自於華為、騰訊、阿里、平安集團等核心大客户業務的穩健增長。
雲智能業務：多年佈局，進入快速擴展階段，收入佔比升至 20%。20H1公司雲智能業務收入為 12.31 億元（YoY+34.2%），佔收入比重同比上 升 3.7pct 至 20.3%。公司通過強化 Digital-First 數字化轉型諮詢服務，以企業數字化轉型諮詢、數據諮詢和創新諮詢為核心，提升公司整體解決方案價值。雲智能業務發展進入快車道，連續兩年穩居 IDC 中國雲管理服務市場 TOP3，預計對公司未來業績的持續增長和利潤率的提升持續提供動力。
維持“買入”評級。預測 20~21 年歸母淨利分別為 9.11 億元、11.04 億 元，最新股價對應 20~21 年 PE 分別為 14.0 倍和 11.6 倍。公司業務已恢復，下半年預計提速；公司與華為保持深度合作，參與到更多業務中，驅動整體增長，同時非華為客户快速增長，雲智能業務受華為雲快速滲透、鯤鵬雲、大數據業務增長驅動，具有成長前景。給予 21 年 16 倍 PE 估值，得到合理價值 7.2 港元/股。
風險提示。貿易戰仍有不確定性，可能對華為業務產生影響；新客户增長不及預期；雲智能業務增長不及預期。
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