一文綜合券商於蒙牛(02319.HK)公布業績後最新觀點、評級及目標價
蒙牛(02319.HK)今日股價抽上，盤中曾高見40.65元一度搶高14.5%，券商指其第二季淨利潤增逾86%復蘇強勁、料競爭環境改善，估計其毛利率透明度增加。蒙牛昨日(27日)收市後公布今年中期業績，純利按年倒退41.7%至12.12億元人民幣，每股盈利30.9分，不派中期息，中期收入按年下降5.8%至375.33億人民幣，毛利按年跌5.9%至146.52億元人民幣，毛利率按年跌0.1個百分點至39%。
蒙牛公布第二季度可比業務收入增加19.2%至197.65億元人民幣，錄得純利12.85億元人民幣，增長86.2%。
【次季復蘇快 液奶銷售強】
麥格理表示，一舉上調蒙牛投資評級，由「跑輸大市」升至「跑贏大市」，目標價由23元升至49元，此相當預測明年市盈率30倍，指公司第二季錄強勁復蘇，自4月收入錄雙位數字增長，料行業競爭有序。
高盛指出，蒙牛半年業績高於該行預估，內生銷售增長及第二季毛利率擴張均勝預期。蒙牛上半年銷售增長為同業中最快，其11%按年增長快於伊利的負2%及光明乳業的2%，受惠於公司持續向更低級別城市及縣區擴展、其高端及主流室溫奶帶來的貢獻。公司有信心達到低雙位數銷售增長及0.3至0.5個百分點的毛利率擴大。該行認為蒙牛下半年有穩固的動力進一步擴大市佔，且有新產品上市及嬰兒配方奶粉業務有加速趨勢。該行維持蒙牛「買入」評級，目標價40.3港元。
大和引述蒙牛管理層指，上半年業績高於公司早前指引，是因為6月收益強勁增長，尤其是高端保鮮裝牛奶，並指渠道庫存於6月回復正常水平。該行亦引述管理層指，蒙牛目標在中國嬰兒配方奶市場市佔進佔前三位，並在2023年達到100億元人民幣收益。大和上調蒙牛今年至2022年收入預測6%至7%，與及同期每股盈利3%至4%，以反映保鮮裝牛奶收入強勁增長，與及更高的嬰兒配方奶收益預期。該行上調蒙牛投資評級，由「跑贏大市」上調至「買入」，目標價由31.4港元上調至41港元。
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本網最新綜合8間券商其投資評級及目標價，1間券商上調投資評級，5間券商上調目標價，全數給予「買入」、「增持」或「跑贏大市」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
麥格理│跑輸大市->跑贏大市│23元->49元
傑富瑞│買入│43.6元->45元
花旗│買入│41.27元->44.36元
瑞信│跑贏大市│40元->44元
美銀證券│買入│41.2元
大和│跑贏大市->買入│31.4元->41元
高盛│買入│40.3元
摩根大通│增持│35元
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券商│觀點
麥格理│自次季起強勁復甦，市場競爭緩和
傑富瑞│料今年下半年及明年毛利率將持續擴張
花旗│下半年強勁復甦，中國必須類消費股首選
瑞信│次季業績快速好轉，毛利率能見度增加
美銀證券│業績稍勝盈警，次季增長穩固
大和│液態奶部分強勁復甦
高盛│中期業績勝預期，液態奶錄最快增長，毛利率穩定擴張
摩根大通│中期盈利較原預期高出23%
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