中國龍工(03339.HK)2020年中期業績點評：經營表現穩健，下半年業績繼續回暖，維持“買入”評級，目標價2.60港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：2.60 港元
◆中期扣非淨利基本持平，盈利能力維持穩定
中國龍工 2020 年上半年實現營業收入 65.14 億人民幣，同比下降3.6%；實現歸母淨利潤 9.4 億人民幣，同比增長 6.2%；每股收益為 0.22元人民幣。由於權益類投資產品計入損益，對淨利潤產生貢獻 1.1 億人民幣；扣除該影響因素後，公司持續經營淨利潤同比基本持平。上半年公司綜合毛利率為 22.9%，同比下降 0.3 個百分點；淨利率為 14.5%，同比上升 1.4個百分點。
◆裝載機和挖掘機二季度復甦明顯
受一季度疫情影響，公司 2020 年上半年裝載機和挖掘機銷售額均有小幅下降，但二季度產品銷售同比增速已經轉正。其中，上半年輪式裝載機收入 32.2 億人民幣，同比下降 3.6%；挖掘機收入 12.8 億人民幣，同比下 降 8.9%；叉車收入 13.5 億人民幣，同比下降 0.2%；壓路機收入 0.5 億人民幣，同比下降 33.0%；零件收入 6.2 億人民幣，同比增長 4.6%。
◆現金流表現穩健，管理穩定高效，抗風險能力強
公司經營穩健，現金流繼續表現強勁。上半年實現經營性淨現金流入4.7 億元，總現金淨流入 2.3 億元。公司期末持有自由現金 27.3 億元，資金較為充沛，抗風險能力強。上半年期銷售、管理、財務等費用率保持較低的水平，內部管理效率較高。
◆內循環基調下國內需求保持景氣，下半年業績有望繼續回暖
中央強調加快形成“以國內大循環為主體、國內國際雙循環互促”的新發展格局，要求繼續釋放內需潛力。國內疫情管控良好，基建項目復工順利，下游需求增加，預計下半年工程機械行業都將保持景氣。公司下半年業績有望繼續回暖，收入增速轉正。
◆維持“買入”評級
我們小幅上調公司 2020 年 EPS 預測，以反映金融產品損益對業績的影響，預計公司 20-22 年 EPS 分別為 0.33/0.33/0.35 元人民幣。維持目標價 2.60 港元，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：海外市場需求風險、產品降價風險、匯率波動風險。
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