一文了解券商对小米(01810.HK)公布业绩後评级及目标价
小米集团(01810.HK)今早股价破顶上扬，盘中曾高见21.75元曾涨13.5%，高盛指小米第二季非国际财务报告准则经调整盈利胜市场预期40%。昨日(26日)收市後公布截至6月底止中期业绩，纯利按年升31.2%至66.62亿元人民币，高於本网综合5间券商预测上限的45.85亿元人民币。每股盈利0.279元人民币，不派息。经调整净利润按年跌0.7%至56.74亿元人民币，高於本网综合4间券商预测上限的48.39亿元人民币。期内营业额按年升7.9%至1,032.4亿元人民币。
单计小米第二季收入按年升3.1%至535.4亿元人民币，经调整净利润达33.73亿元人民币，胜预期。公司第二季度智能手机分部毛利率由去年同期的8.1%降至7.2%，主要因为线上购物节期间增强促销力度，物联网与生活消费产品分部毛利率则扩阔0.2个百分点至11.4%，互联网服务分部毛利率则收窄至60.3%。第二季智能手机收入按年跌1.2%至316亿元人民币，销量2,830万部，受惠中高端手机销量占比上升，平均销售单价按年升11.8%，按季升7.5%。
【业绩胜预期 欧洲市场强】
摩根士丹利指出，小米手机业务有两项正面因素，第一是手机於海外市占扩张持续上轨道，尤其为欧洲，第二是预期新手游推动业绩。但物联网表现仍然较弱，部分产品在经济放缓下的重要性降低，金融科技业务若在下半年持续出现拨备，将出现风险。该行指，管理层承诺持续推动中国本土及海外市场，该行认为这是合理策略，但亦预期经营开支会在下半年持续高企。该行上调对小米目标价，由20元升至24元，维持「增持」评级。
高盛上调小米明年及後年收入预测6%至8%，基於小米手机市毓上升上调手机收入预测，与及手机单价上升。此外，该行亦上调对小米互联网收益估算，基於更多手机付运及付费用户增长。该行上调小米明年及後年经调整净利润6%至8%，但预期收益增长将被增加的销售推广与研发开支所抵销。该行维持对小米的「买入」评级，目标价由14.3元升至22.5元。
大和则指出，小米手机组合内高端手机比例增加，导致单价按年升12%，展望疫情影响过去及中国5G手机更新周期刚开展，预期小米下半年将继续占取市占，包括向更多国家供货，及在供应链运作大致如常下从对手取得市占。该行上调小米目标价至24元，维持「买入」评级。
本网最新综合7间券商对其投资评级及目标价，有6间上调目标价弓及予「买入」、「增持」或「跑赢大市」评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价
摩根士丹利│增持│20元->24元
大和│买入│15元->24元
高盛│买入│14.3元->22.5元
花旗│买入│18元->22.2元
瑞信│跑赢大市│15.3元->22.1元
美银证券│买入│20元->22元
瑞银│中性│19元
--------------------
券商│观点
摩根士丹利│次季业绩忧喜参半，股价将因潜在上行风险上升
大和│手机付运料加快增长
高盛│明年市占扩张，上调目标价
花旗│次季业绩胜预期，基於增长加快上调目标价
瑞信│次季业绩受惠投资公平值盈利，手机业务下半年动力增强
美银证券│季绩胜预期，产品组合优化及从华为取得市占
瑞银│核心营运溢利大致符预期
(fc/w)
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