中國海外發展(00688.HK)：銷售完成度高，有序補充土儲
機構：興業證券
投資要點
我們的觀點：公司上半年謹慎有序的補充了土地儲備，合理運用了多元化的拿地渠道，約三分之一新增土儲來自非公開市場拿地。H1 新增土儲質量優，均位於核心城市，權益比例維持較高水平。公司運營安全穩健，財務優勢明顯，利潤率行業領先，派息比例呈上升趨勢。公司的當前股價對應 2019 年 PE為 6.4 倍，當前股息收益率為 4.3%。
核心淨利潤同比增長 0.3%，業績符合預期：2020H1 公司實現營業收入 886億元人民幣（下同），同比增長 11%。核心淨利潤為 179 億元，同比增長 0.3%。毛利率為 30.6%，同比下降 4.3 個百分點。核心淨利率為 20.2%，同比下降 1.8個百分點。公司中期每股派息 45 港仙，同比持平，派息總額佔核心淨利潤比例為 24%。
銷售完成度高：截至上半年公司實現累計合約銷售金額和麪積1720億元和954萬平米，銷售均價為 18024 元/平米，高於行業平均水平，上半年銷售完成度為 48%（行業平均為 41%），回款健康，回款率為 84%。集團上半年銷售按區域分佈，華東、華北、北方、西部、港澳、合聯營、中海宏洋、華南分別佔19%、19%、10%、10%、1%、15%、16%、9%。
保持土地儲備規模：上半年公司新增了 21 幅土地，新增 GFA 為 582 萬平米，權益比例高達 97%，一二線城市拿地金額佔比達到 98%。截至 2020H1，公司的總土地儲備為 6372 萬平米，較 2019 年末下降 2%，土儲權益比例超過 80%。
財務實力強，保持融資優勢：截至 2020H1 公司的淨負債率為 33.0%，較 2019年末下降 0.7 個百分點。平均融資成本為 4.0%，較 2019 年末下降 0.2 個百分點。截至 2020H1，公司的賬面現金為 1114 億元，有息負債為 2086 億元，其中短期債務佔比為 16%，現金短債比超過 3 倍，人民幣債務佔比為 46%。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值。
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