世茂集團(00813.HK)2020年中報點評：營收業績同步增長，持續投資佈局未來，維持“買入”評級，目標價40.34港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：40.34港元
核心觀點
營收利潤同步增長，業績穩健向好。公司 2020 年上半年實現營業收入 645.5億元，同比增長 14.1%，實現歸母核心淨利潤 61.6 億元，同比增長 16.0%，實現營收業績同步增長。上半年房地產開發板塊實現收入 614.7 億元，同比增長 16.6%，受疫情影響，公司運營端尤其是酒店業務收入有所下滑，但物業管理板塊實現收入 19.0 億元，同比增長 18%，取得逆勢增長。利潤率方面，公司毛利率 30.2%，較去年年底下滑 0.4 個百分點，歸母核心淨利率9.5%，較去年年底增長 0.1 個百分點，基本保持穩定。
銷售逆勢增長，繼續維持高強度投資。公司 2020 年上半年地產銷售金額1104.8 億元，同比增長 10.1%，銷售均價 17541 元/平方米，和去年年底基本持平，在新冠疫情影響下實現逆勢增長。公司下半年可售貨值達 4000 億元，去化六成即可完成全年 3000 億銷售目標。公司 2020 年上半年繼續保持高強度投資，新增土儲 1232 萬平方米，土地投資額 647.0 億元，投資強度為 59%，與 2019 年基本持平。截止至 2020 年 6 月，公司土儲為 8393萬方，土地儲備合理充裕，滿足 3 年左右的銷售需求。
槓桿率基本持平，短債覆蓋比率提升。2020 年 6 月末公司淨負債率59.9%，較 2019 年底下降 3.7 個百分點，繼續保持在行業較低水平。公司持續強化現金流管控，上半年實現回款 890.4 億元，同增長 9.5%，報告期末公司賬面現金達到 699.2 億元，較 2019 年年末增長 17.3%，帶動現金短債比提升至 1.8。受益於良好的財務表現，公司融資成本明顯下降，公司7 月成功發行 3 億美元十年期優先票據，票面利率僅 4.6%。
財務預測與投資建議
維持買入評級，目標價上調至 40.34 港元（原目標價 35.37 港元）。受公司配股影響，我們調整公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 的預測至 4.00/4.68/5.68 元（原值為 4.04/4.78/5.80）。可比公司 2020 年估值為 9X，對應目標價 40.34 港元。（匯率：1 港元=0.8919 人民幣）。
風險提示
房地產市場銷售可能低於預期。分拆上市進度不及預期。利率上升超預期。
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