申洲國際(02313.HK)：龍頭逆勢擴張份額，經營拐點確立，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價123.2港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：123.2港元
投資要點
公司發佈20H1 中期業績：20H1 公司營業收入約為 102.3 億元，毛利潤為 31.59億元，歸母淨利潤約為 25.12 億元，派息比率約為 50%。
我們點評如下：
營收略有下降：由於疫情影響公司休閒服收入下滑較多，同比-19.2%。但由於公司上半年口罩及鞋面業務收入表現較好，彌補休閒服裝收入下滑較多的局面，促使公司整體營收(YoY-0.4%)波動幅度不大，與去年同期基本持平。
毛利潤率略有下降：若剔除已退出的零售業務，公司 OEM 毛利潤率下降0.6ppt。主要是由於 1）產能利用率過低導致分攤較多的生產設備折舊攤銷，2）疫情期間支付額外津貼，導致人工成本佔比上升。
歸母淨利潤率略有上升,費用管理控制能力加強：1）銷售費用率大幅下降，較去年同期下降 1.42ppt，今年無零售業務的相關開支。2）為保持一定數量的美金貨幣貸款，財務費用率略有上升；3）管理費用率温和上升。
主要營運指標均健康：20H1 公司存貨週轉天數 135 天，應收賬款週轉天數為63 天，賬齡結構整體表現較好。
7/8 月訂單量同比實現正增長:1）四大主要客户終端銷售流水迴歸正常，大客户加速對公司在 Q3 的補單量；2）國內龍頭運動品牌銷售流水明顯改善。
我們的觀點：在全球疫情負面衝擊下，20H1 公司營收保持穩定，且盈利能力較好，各項營運指標保持健康。反應了公司與優質大客户的深度綁定，以及產業鏈溢價權的持續增加，公司市場份額得以逆勢增長，行業龍頭優勢顯現。看長，公司持續推進國內外工廠垂直一體化的生產模式，擴大低成本生產基地規模和產能利用率提升，我們對公司的長期趨勢看好，各品類收入持續增長以及訂單量穩定將會促進收入持續提高。我們預計公司 FY20/21 營收分別 236.4億元/265.1 億元，同比+4.3%/12.2%；歸母淨利潤分別為 52.4 億元/59.5 億元，同比+5.7%/13.6%；EPS 分別為 3.46 元/3.93 元，當前股價 119.2 港元對應 PE 分別為 34.4x/30.3x。上調公司目標價至 123.2 港元，維持審慎增持評級。
風險提示：未能與核心客户保持合作關係、勞動力短缺及成本上升、原材料價格變動、全球貿易政策變動風險。
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