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里昂證券:維持現代牧業(1117.HK)買入評級 目標價2港元
格隆匯 08-26 16:34

里昂證券發表研究報告指,現代牧業(1117.HK)值得根據其領先的運營效率和歷史低谷估值進行重估,該行指其上半年核心淨利潤估計按年增長33%,並錄得調整後的淨利潤大增492%,高於先前的盈喜公告。強勁的盈利增長主要是由於效率的持續提高,該行預計增長將持續至今年下半年,維持其買入評級,以及目標價2港元。

該行表示,由於不利的天氣因素和強勁的潛在需求,預計原奶供應不足將在今年下半年顯現,料下半年全國原奶價格按年上漲3-5%,現代牧業全年奶價料按年上漲2%。雖然該行認為關鍵指標是每噸原奶的毛利水平,但原奶價格仍可能是關鍵催化劑。

該行認為,蒙牛乳業和內蒙古伊利實業集團最近對中國聖牧和中地乳業的投資,顯示出上游行業被低估,該行並維持2020-22年的預期銷售額及EBITDA不變。另外,鑑於現金流強勁及負債比率較低,該行續預期現代牧業將在其成立10週年之際派發股息。

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