《业绩前瞻》券商料农行(01288.HK)中期最多倒退逾9% 聚焦不良贷款率
农业银行(01288.HK)将於本周五(28日)公布今年中期业绩，投资者估计新冠疫情导致不良贷款趋升，在监管引导内银加大拨备，估计第二季内银拨备计提量加大及信用成本抽高，据中国银监会早前数据，内地商业银行上半年累计实现净利润按年跌9.4%(其中大型银行跌12%)、截至第二季末的不良贷款余额及不良率「双升」。
综合3间券商预测，农业银行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,100.87亿至1,214.45亿元人民币，较2019年同期1,214.45亿人民币，按年下跌9.4%至持平。
此外，综合3间券商预测，农行今年中期净利润(NPAT)料介乎1,113.76亿至1,251.87亿元人民币，较2019年同期1,223.73亿人民币，按年减少9%至上升2.3%。虽然内地近月经济数据改善，但中银监曾指由於采逆周期措施，不良贷款风险暴露可能延迟，市场将关注内银的贷款质量、拨备及不良贷款趋势等，关注市场潜在下调对内银的盈利及股息的预测。
【聚焦拨备升 关注不良率】
摩根大通估计农行今年上半年纯利将按年跌8.5%至1,111.76亿人民币、估计净利润将按年倒退8.5%至1,111.76亿元，估计净利息收入录2,515.46亿人民币按年升6%、净息差收窄至2.12%%，成本收入比率为31.5%，料信用减值损失958.48亿人民币按年升30%，估计不良贷款比率升至1.44%，料股本回报率为11.3%及核心一级资本充足率为13.38%。
摩通指，投资者应关注农业银行净息差收窄，因贷款市场报价利率削减及普惠金融贷款增加，或进一步压银行利润空间。投资者亦将留意主要资产质量指标趋势，包括毛不良贷款形成比率、关注类贷款比率及逾期未还贷款比率。此外，数据显示农业银行存款增长为四大内银中最差，在存款竞争加剧下，存款增长成为大型银行备受关注的焦点。存款组合亦为另一受市场关注焦点，因农业银行现金帐及活期存款帐户比率(CASA ratio)於第二季下跌，或推升存款成本。
野村预期，农行第二季纯利将出现按年负增长，与首季按年升5%走势扭转。主要受不良货款确认递延及宏观经济不景，尤其监管机构要求银行增加拨备及不良货款减值，此将增加信货成本及不良货款形成率。此外，因国务院规定金融业向实体经济注入1.5万亿元人民币，当中大部分将透过减息实行，信贷定息及债券收益下跌将减低资产收益及净息差。野村则预测农业银行中期纯利按年持平。
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综合3间券商预测，农业银行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,100.87亿至1,214.45亿元人民币，较2019年同期1,214.45亿人民币，按年下跌9.4%至持平。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
野村│1,214.45亿元│持平
摩根大通│1,111.76亿元│-8.5%
建银国际│1,100.87亿元│-9.4%
按农行2019年上半年纯利1,214.45亿元人民币计算
---------------------------
综合3间券商预测，农行今年上半年净利润(NPAT)料介乎1,113.76亿至1,251.87亿元人民币，较2019年同期1,223.73亿人民币，按年减少9%至上升2.3%。
券商│今年上半年净利润(人民币)│按年变幅
高盛│1,251.87亿元│+2.3%
瑞银│1,202.96亿元│-1.7%
摩根大通│1,113.76亿元│-9%
按农行2019年上半年净利润1,223.72亿元人民币计算。
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