《業績前瞻》券商料農行(01288.HK)中期最多倒退逾9% 聚焦不良貸款率
農業銀行(01288.HK)將於本周五(28日)公布今年中期業績，投資者估計新冠疫情導致不良貸款趨升，在監管引導內銀加大撥備，估計第二季內銀撥備計提量加大及信用成本抽高，據中國銀監會早前數據，內地商業銀行上半年累計實現淨利潤按年跌9.4%(其中大型銀行跌12%)、截至第二季末的不良貸款餘額及不良率「雙升」。
綜合3間券商預測，農業銀行今年上半年純利料介乎1,100.87億至1,214.45億元人民幣，較2019年同期1,214.45億人民幣，按年下跌9.4%至持平。
此外，綜合3間券商預測，農行今年中期淨利潤(NPAT)料介乎1,113.76億至1,251.87億元人民幣，較2019年同期1,223.73億人民幣，按年減少9%至上升2.3%。雖然內地近月經濟數據改善，但中銀監曾指由於採逆周期措施，不良貸款風險暴露可能延遲，市場將關注內銀的貸款質量、撥備及不良貸款趨勢等，關注市場潛在下調對內銀的盈利及股息的預測。
【聚焦撥備升 關注不良率】
摩根大通估計農行今年上半年純利將按年跌8.5%至1,111.76億人民幣、估計淨利潤將按年倒退8.5%至1,111.76億元，估計淨利息收入錄2,515.46億人民幣按年升6%、淨息差收窄至2.12%%，成本收入比率為31.5%，料信用減值損失958.48億人民幣按年升30%，估計不良貸款比率升至1.44%，料股本回報率為11.3%及核心一級資本充足率為13.38%。
摩通指，投資者應關注農業銀行淨息差收窄，因貸款市場報價利率削減及普惠金融貸款增加，或進一步壓銀行利潤空間。投資者亦將留意主要資產質量指標趨勢，包括毛不良貸款形成比率、關注類貸款比率及逾期未還貸款比率。此外，數據顯示農業銀行存款增長為四大內銀中最差，在存款競爭加劇下，存款增長成為大型銀行備受關注的焦點。存款組合亦為另一受市場關注焦點，因農業銀行現金帳及活期存款帳戶比率(CASA ratio)於第二季下跌，或推升存款成本。
野村預期，農行第二季純利將出現按年負增長，與首季按年升5%走勢扭轉。主要受不良貨款確認遞延及宏觀經濟不景，尤其監管機構要求銀行增加撥備及不良貨款減值，此將增加信貨成本及不良貨款形成率。此外，因國務院規定金融業向實體經濟注入1.5萬億元人民幣，當中大部分將透過減息實行，信貸定息及債券收益下跌將減低資產收益及淨息差。野村則預測農業銀行中期純利按年持平。
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綜合3間券商預測，農業銀行今年上半年純利料介乎1,100.87億至1,214.45億元人民幣，較2019年同期1,214.45億人民幣，按年下跌9.4%至持平。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
野村│1,214.45億元│持平
摩根大通│1,111.76億元│-8.5%
建銀國際│1,100.87億元│-9.4%
按農行2019年上半年純利1,214.45億元人民幣計算
---------------------------
綜合3間券商預測，農行今年上半年淨利潤(NPAT)料介乎1,113.76億至1,251.87億元人民幣，較2019年同期1,223.73億人民幣，按年減少9%至上升2.3%。
券商│今年上半年淨利潤(人民幣)│按年變幅
高盛│1,251.87億元│+2.3%
瑞銀│1,202.96億元│-1.7%
摩根大通│1,113.76億元│-9%
按農行2019年上半年淨利潤1,223.72億元人民幣計算。
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