第一上海料蚂蚁集团估值或超1.55万亿元 予阿里(09988.HK)目标价298.74元
第一上海近日发表报告表示,预计於今年下半年全球经济持续复苏,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)在持续发力新零售的同时,企业上云趋势明显。此外,蚂蚁集团上市在即,有望在科创板和港交所主板同步上市,上一轮估值为1,500亿美元(约1.16万亿港元),最新估值有望超过2,000亿美元(1.55万亿港元)。此外,阿里巴巴有望纳入恒指,将进一步提升市场对公司的关注,该行预计2021财年至2023财年收入增速分别为31.87%、26.36%和19.94%,利润增速分别为32.3%、30.01%和28.09%,予阿里巴巴目标价298.74元,维持「买入」评级。
该行表示,阿里巴巴於2021财年首财季实现收入1,537.51亿元人民币(下同)按年升34%,经营利润347.05亿元按年升42%,EBITDA为510.39亿元按年升30%,非通用会计准则净利润为394.74亿元按年升28%,并认为核心电商各项指标均超预期,拼多多无法冲击阿里的基本盘。
第一上海指,天猫是GMV快速增长的主推力,佣金收入增幅不完全同步,受到低佣金的快消和消费电子产品以及支持部分商家的影响。第二是购买频次和ASP均有所提升。第三是用户增长虽慢於竞争对手,但基数庞大增长稳健(年度活跃买家7.42亿,移动月活8.74亿)。第四是淘系电商进展良好,特价版DAU已达4,000万,直播GMV按年升100%。第五是公司的利润率已恢复正常水平,打消投资人对市场竞争加剧和疫情影响的担忧。
此外,据蚂蚁集团上市资料显示,於上市前,阿里巴巴集团对蚂蚁集团持股32.65%。
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