中國太平(00966.HK)：下調2020年盈利預測，維持“買入“評級
機構：華金證券
評級：買入-A
投資要點
◆ 事件：公司發佈 2020 年中期業績預減公告，初步估算 H120 歸母淨利潤同比下滑57%，業績下滑原因主要系 1）2019 年上半年手續費及佣金税優政策，今年相比實際税負加重；2）投資業務下確認的減值損失。扣除税優政策影響預計下滑 44%。
◆ 業績下滑主要受投資拖累：結合上半年太平人壽/產險保費表現（分別同比+0.45%/+2.04%），內地/香港權益市場表現，以及公司描述，判斷公司在港投資受到影響。據此我們下調全年盈利預測，此前預計公司 2020 年營收同比+0.34%、歸母淨利潤同比-17.52%，現調整至營收同比-0.01%/歸母淨利潤同比-26.75%。
◆ 上半年 5G 經理人計劃 1.0 成效顯著：對於代理人提質增效，目前流行做法是優質增員+存量代理人培訓提質，提升代理人整體素質來擴大客户觸達面+經營能力，簡言之就是既需要面向更多客户（開拓廣度），也要加深單個客户的服務粘性（深度）。上半年太平人壽在 5G 計劃下招募了包括私營企業主、國企職員等，集中在 30~49歲，學歷多為大專及以上，僅 2/3 月份就新上崗 9 萬人，為後續產能釋放積蓄動能。
◆ 下半年 5G 計劃 2.0 出爐，打造領頭羊：2.0 階段，即招募“最佳合夥人”。主要在招募個險團隊長期合夥對象，為公司培養長期留在團隊的核心主管，發揮領頭羊效應，提升團隊整體的留存率。與 1.0 吸引高素質人才不同的是，2.0 更注重長期培養機制及晉升路徑。對新人的培養上，2.0 新增結果導向指標，鼓勵新人展業，其他包括日常拜訪客户的記錄也都在考核之列。整體上《基本法》圍繞着代理人團隊的自我強化。在團隊粘性上，根據代理人職級提供意外/身故/醫療/重疾等各式保障。晉升機制上也明確了代理人每一階段的上升路徑和職業規劃，做到有法可依。
◆ 投資建議：基於中期業績預減情形，我們將此前 2020 全年歸母淨利潤下調 11.19%。鑑於 5G 計劃執行力度和發展階段，我們看好後續產能釋放，將 2021-22 年歸母淨利潤分別上調 4.44%和 9.27%。目前對應 2020EP/EV 為 0.29x，處於絕對低估位置，維持買入-A 評級。
◆ 風險提示：優質增員不及預期、線下展業不及預期，權益市場大幅波動。
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