中教控股(00839.HK):併購海口經濟學院,外延擴張持續進擊,給予“買入”評級
機構:國盛證券
事件:13.56 億元併購海口經濟學院舉辦者 60%股權。公司公告於 2020年 8 月 7 日以 13.56 億元的交易對價併購海口經濟學院及其附屬藝術學校舉辦者 60%的股權,此外公司與標的學校原舉辦者簽訂管理合約,公司可獲得標的學校至 2023 年 2 月末之前的全部利潤。若不單獨考慮管理合約的價值,本次併購對應 2020 財年 EV/EBITDA 13.9 倍。標的學校 FY2019 實現收入 5.78 億元,淨利潤 4473 萬元。
標的學校:海南省最大民辦本科學校,學費標準顯著高於行業水平。海口經濟學院於 2008 年 3 月經教育部批准升格為本科院校,目前為海南省最大的民辦本科學校。學校佔地面積超 1400 畝,建築面積約 66 萬平方米。截至2019 年 12 月海口經濟學院擁有在校生人數約 4.2 萬人,其中普通本科及專科在校生人數約 2.2 萬人。通過合作辦學形式,學校開設部分高端學院及專業,2020 年本科課程學費區間為 2.39-9.99 萬元,住宿費為每年 2800 元,均顯著高於行業水平。
併購整合有望帶來顯著在校生人數及收入增量。2019-2020 學年公司旗下學校在校生共 18.18 萬人,本次併購完成後將為集團帶來約 24%的在校生增量,集團的在校生人數將突破 22.5 萬人。標的學校增長性強,2020 年海口經濟學院普通本科及專科招生學額超過 1.1 萬人,相較兩年前增長 58%;學費方面,由於海南省 2019 年放開營利性民辦學校定價自主權,海口經濟學院學費上限從約 5 萬元提升至約 10 萬元。由於高等教育階段學生需在校3-4 年,招生學額及學費的增長為集團後續收入增長奠定基礎。
投資建議。公司作為規模最大的民辦高教上市公司,有望利用規模優勢、融資優勢及管理優勢持續擴張高教版圖,享受行業整合紅利。伴隨公司新校區擴建以及擴招和轉設加速政策的推動,公司內生增長空間充足。此外,公司強大的併購及併購後的整合能力已經得到驗證,本次併購海口經濟學院有望驅動公司高速增長。基於公司在內生以及外延的亮眼表現,我們維持 FY2020歸母淨利潤預測 9.04 億元,並上調 2021/2022 財年歸母淨利潤預測至11.76/14.01 億元(原 10.49/12.18 億元),同增 52.5%/30.1%/19.2%,對應 EPS 0.45/0.58/0.69 元,現價對應 PE 31X/24X/20X,上調至“買入”評級。
風險提示:《民促法實施條例》終稿政策不確定性風險;擴張速度不達預期;公司經營及盈利能力不達預期。

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