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一文了解券商於瑞聲(02018.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
阿思達克 08-25 11:46
瑞聲科技(02018.HK)中期業績遜預期,市場對其毛利率表現感失望,今早股價持續受壓,盤中曾挫7%一度低見49.25元。該公司昨日(24日)中午收市後公布截至6月底止中期業績,純利按年跌58.4%至3.2億元人民幣,遜於本網綜合9間券商純利預測下限的3.44億元人民幣,每股盈利0.27元人民幣,派每股中期息10港仙(上年同期派40港仙)。公司上半年營業額按年升3.6%至78.37億元人民幣,毛利按年跌12.8%至18.2億元人民幣,毛利率按年跌4.3個百分點至23.2%,差於本網綜合7間券商毛利率預測下限的23.5%。

按業務劃分,上半年光學分部銷售額按年升49.8%至6.3億元人民幣;聲學分部銷售額按年跌8.7%至33.3億元人民幣,毛利率跌3.8個百分點至26.3%;電磁傳動及精密結構件業務收入按年升9.7%至34.2億元人民幣,合併毛利率下跌6.3個百分點至23.2%。單計第二季集團收入按年升12.1%至42.77億元人民幣,純利按年跌20.8%至2.68億元人民幣,毛利率按年下跌1.7個百分點至23.3%。

【業績遜預期 毛利率拖累】

野村認為,瑞聲科技次季業績疫弱,可能部分地與華為面對美國制裁有關,但相信有關影響將在未來減少,基於基數效應。該行亦指,公司對下半年光學業務的指標具建設性,基於預期付運更多塑料鏡頭、毛利率改善及玻塑混合鏡頭開始付運。該行下調對瑞聲科技今年至2022年盈利預測7%至14%,反映聲學及電磁傳動部件銷售下降,目標價由39.3元上調至51元,評級由「減持」上調至「中性」。

花旗稱,瑞聲次季業績令人失望,尤其光學業務毛利率僅13.8%,遠不及目標的30%至40%。該行認為,瑞聲於前景低能景度下給予不清晰的下半年業績指引,並指該股自3月因投資者憧憬光學業務增長而開始上升,但相信大立光及舜宇(02382.HK)強大優勢下,瑞聲只能實現低質量增長。該行下調對瑞聲科技的盈利預測,基於業績遜預期及更大的研發比例,目標價由46元降至40元,評級由「中性」降至「沽售」。

【野村降評級 光學業務遜】

摩根士丹利表示,關注瑞聲射頻套管業務的下行風險,基於有關業務曝險大部分地集中於被美國制裁的華為,且在蘋果iPhone的電磁傳動部件市估有機會跌至四成以下。該行亦指,投資者必須留意瑞聲銷售及產出的差距,並指情況令該行憂慮鏡頭業務潛在庫存減值風險。該行下調對瑞聲科技的盈利預測,以反映業務下行風險及次季業績表現,目標價由60元降至52元,投資評級維持「與大市同步」。

本網最新綜合12間券商對其投資評級及目標價,3間券商上調目標價,5間券商下調目標價,各有1間券商上調及下調評級,3間給予「跑贏大市」評級:

券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)

海通國際│跑贏大市│80元->72元

建銀國際│跑贏大市│69.8元->67.5元

瑞信│跑贏大市│66.4元->62.9元

國泰君安│中性│56元

摩根士丹利│與大市同步│60元->52元

大和│持有│43元->51元

野村│減持->中性│39.3元->51元

摩根大通│中性│48元

花旗│中性->沽售│46元->40元

美銀證券│跑輸大市│38元

高盛│沽售│31元

瑞銀│沽售│30元->32元

---------------------

券商│觀點

海通國際│復甦仍處軌道,縱使速度較預期慢

建銀國際│光學業務進展上軌道,公司朝向正確方向

瑞信│次季毛利及淨利潤遜預期,光學業務持續改善

國泰君安│業績基本符合預期

摩根士丹利│射頻及鏡頭庫存風險增加

大和│光學業務看法正面,但毛利率不確定性仍存

野村│華為事件主要影響或已過去,光學業務持續改善

摩根大通│與40%毛利率預期相去甚遠,不論企業整體及光學業務

花旗│鏡頭業務高期望帶來下行風險,整體利潤率受市場競爭拖累

美銀證券│毛利率遜預期顯示業務調整仍在進行

高盛│次季淨利潤遜預期

瑞銀│次季盈利遜預期,短期股價料受壓

(fc/w)

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