中集安瑞科(03899.HK)2020年中期業績點評：疫情影響海外市場需求，下半年景氣度有望回升，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆業績短期承壓，現金流維持穩定
中集安瑞科 2020 年上半年實現營業收入 53.2 億人民幣，同比下降19.2%；實現歸母淨利潤 2.2 億人民幣，同比下降 43.6%；每股收益 0.11元人民幣。綜合毛利率為 14.2%，同比下降 1.1 個百分點。公司在疫情期間嚴格控制資本支出，實現經營性現金流入 2.3 億元，好於去年同期。
◆化工與液態食品板塊收入不及預期，下半年景氣度有望回升
2020 年上半年，公司清潔能源分部收入 29.9 億人民幣，同比下降4.1%；化工環境分部收入 10.7 億人民幣，同比下降 44.5%；液態食品分部收入 10.2 億人民幣，同比下降 32.2%。化工和液態食品分部收入大幅下滑，主要由於疫情嚴重衝擊海外市場需求，且工程類項目有部分海外施工現場停工，影響上半年的收入確認；隨着海外工程的逐步復工，預計下半年確認收入金額將出現回升。
◆在手訂單保持充足，延期訂單或在下半年交付
截止 2020 年 7 月，公司在手訂單為 102 億元，同比基本持平。其中清潔能源相關的訂單為 49 億，同比增長 11%。由於新冠疫情，全球運輸設備相關訂單處於較低水平，海外員工不能如期到崗，但在此期間公司訂單基本未出現取消的情況。公司在國內快速實現了復產復工，且海外復工已明顯好轉，預計下半年公司會交付更多延期訂單。
◆政策推動清潔能源轉型，長期趨勢仍然向好
2020 年是完成儲氣調峯指標的最後一年。隨着國家管網公司成立，城市燃氣公司也在加強自身氣源儲備能力，向更規模化、區域集約化，跨地聯合的儲氣設施發展；地下儲氣庫、沿海 LNG 接收站和區域大型 LNG 儲罐等設施的建設，未來仍將推動公司清潔能源業務穩健成長。
◆維持“買入”評級
我們下調公司 20-22 年 EPS 預測至 0.37/0.46/0.55 元人民幣，以反映全球疫情衝擊對公司業務，特別是化工和液態食品業務的影響。公司積極應對疫情，下半年需求景氣度有望復甦，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：政策變化風險、油氣價格波動風險、海外業務發展不順風險。
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