平安好醫生(01833.HK)：在線醫療繼續翻倍增長，醫保支付加速落地，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司披露上半年業績公告，收入穩定增長，虧損縮窄，核心經營數據穩步增長。20H1 收入實現 27.47 億元（YoY +20.9%），歸母淨虧損2.14 億元，同比收窄 21.6%。管理費用率 17.6%（YoY -6.3pct），銷售費用率 24.7%（YoY +8.2pct）。6 月 MAU、MPU 分別為 6,730 萬（YoY+7.3%）和 294.9 萬（YoY +32.3%）。20H1 日均諮詢量 83.1 萬人次（YoY +26.7%） ? 在線醫療強勁，驅動收入增長，各業務毛利率均有提升。20H1 在線醫療收入翻倍，其中會員產品收入超 4.2 億元，同比增長超 2 倍，貨品銷售收入實現 1.55 億，同比+123%；毛利率同比增長 4.1pct 至 54.6%。
消費型醫療收入同比+12.2%，毛利率大幅提升，Q1 線下機構基本處於關閉狀態，5 月用户履約情況已恢復正常。健康商城收入略增，GMV同比下滑 7.5%，公司主動調整流量運營策略，流量投入集中在醫療業務用户。健康管理和互動收入同比+14.6%，毛利率保持穩定。
疫情推動多地互聯網醫療服務醫保支付加速落地，公司積極推進合建互聯網醫院及探索自建模式，在多地已接入醫保支付。
維持“買入”評級。預計 20~21 年收入分別為 68.00 億元、92.69 億元，虧損逐漸縮窄並於 2022 年實現盈利。考慮到平安好醫生 4 項業務模式差異，我們以 SoTP 方法進行估值，分別給予在線診療/健康商城/消費醫療/廣告業務 21 年 25/10/8/16 倍 PS，得到合理價值為 127.0港元/股。互聯網醫療政策持續落地，逐漸打開行業發展空間，疫情加速用户行為向線上轉移。平安好醫生是互聯網醫療健康龍頭，引領行業探索互聯網醫療的業務模式和商業模式，在線診療業務處於快速發展中，醫保支付項目快速落地，整體虧損率逐漸收窄。
風險提示。醫保支付進程低於預期；會員產品增長不及預期；行業競爭導致銷售費用增加；對平安集團依賴性大；政策變化。
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