《业绩前瞻》券商料工行(01398.HK)中期纯利最多倒退一成 关注拨备趋升
工商银行(01398.HK)将於本周五(28日)公布中期业绩，市场料新冠疫情导致不良贷款趋升，在监管引导内银加大拨备，以应对未来潜在不良贷款压力，估计第二季内银拨备计提量加大及信用成本抽高，据中国银监会早前数据，内地商业银行上半年累计实现净利润按年跌9.4%(其中大型银行跌12%)、截至第二季末的不良贷款余额及不良率「双升」。
本网综合4间券商预期工行今年上半年录纯利介乎1,510.43亿元至1,698亿人民币，较2019年上半年1,679.31亿人民币，按年跌10.1%至升1.1%，中位数为1,662亿人民币，按年跌1%。
虽然内地近月经济数据改善，但中银监曾指由於采逆周期措施，不良贷款风险暴露可能延迟，投资者将关注内银的贷款质量、拨备及不良贷款趋势等，关注市场潜在下调对内银的盈利及股息的预测。
【关注拨备升 聚焦不良率】
摩根大通估计工行今年上半年纯利1,510.43亿人民币按年倒退10%(较2019年下半年按半年升5%)、料工行上半年净利息收入按年升5%至3,131.71亿人民币，料净息差按年收窄12个基点至2.17%、估计期内资产减值损失按年增三成、拨备覆盖率为195.8%、料不良货款比率1.48%按年持平(按半年则升5个基点)。该行料工行股本回报率降至11.2%、成本收入比率降至21.9%、估计其一级资本充足率为13.51%。该行料投资者聚焦工行的资产质素(如不良贷款比率上升)及净息差收窄。
瑞银发表报告表示，预期内银第二季及上半年纯利将按年倒退，主要由於季内拨备增加，由不良贷款分类要求提升及新型肺炎疫情所带动，相信次季数字於现周期仍未见顶，尤其是企业贷款方面。
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本网综合4间券商预期工行今年上半年录纯利介乎1,510.43亿元至1,698亿人民币，较2019年上半年1,679.31亿人民币，按年跌10.1%至升1.1%，中位数为1,662亿人民币，按年跌1%。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
高盛│1,698亿元│+1.1%
野村│1,679.31亿元│持平
瑞银│1,644亿元│-2.1%
摩根大通│1,510.43亿元│-10.1%
按工行2019年上半年纯利1,679.31亿元人民币计
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综合2间券商预期工行今年上半年录资产减值损失介乎1,150.49亿元至1,285.62亿人民币，较2019年上半年991.8亿人民币，按年升16%至升29.6%。
券商│今年上半年资产减值损失预测(人民币)│按年变幅
摩根大通│1,285.62亿元│+29.6%
瑞银│1,150.49亿元│+16%
按工行2019年上半年资产减值损失991.8亿人民币计
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综合2间券商预测工行今年上半年不良贷款率1.48%至1.51%，较2019年上半年1.48%，按年下跌0.03个百分点至持平。
券商│今年上半年不良贷款率预测│按年变幅
摩根大通│1.48%│持平
野村│1.51%│下跌0.03个百分点
按工行2019年上半年不良贷款率1.48%计
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