富瑞:升雅居樂(3383.HK)目標價至12港元 維持持有評級
富瑞發表研究報告表示,對雅居樂(3383.HK)的銷售及盈利前景轉趨樂觀,原因是其土地儲備及收入來源更多元化;在毛利率料升1至2個百分點推動下,相信明年公司銷售可加快回復15%的增長,令20至22年的盈利年複合增長率有望達低雙位數,而公司明年亦料有更多分拆行動。不過,雅居樂削減派息短期內料拖累股價表現,維持其持有評級,但將目標價由9.22港元升至12港元。
富瑞表示,對雅居樂中期股息按年減少17%至0.5港元感到驚訝,管理層解釋此舉主要是為降低負債,以提高公司信貸評級及降低借貸成本,相信未來幾年35%的派息比率會較符合公司。
富瑞續指,考慮到公司下半年可售資源達1250億元人民幣,預期雅居樂今年可超額完成全年銷售目標約2%,意味未來數月去化率為45%,對雅居樂未來的預售增長看法亦更為樂觀,並預料未來兩年公司將有更多業務分拆,尤其是環保及房管業務方面。
該行上調雅居樂毛利率預測2至4個百分點,並升20至22年盈利預測12%至17%,以反映最近的新土儲。

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