《業績前瞻》券商料平安(02318.HK)中期新業務價值倒退24% 料稅後營運利潤微降
中國平安(02318.HK)將於本周四(27日)公布今年中期業績，新冠疫情令內地政府實施限制社交距離措施，抑制了線下保險銷售活動，第二季受到個人首年保費收入及新業務價值利潤率受壓拖累，本網綜合8間券商預期中國平安今年上半年新業務價值介乎308億元至349億人民幣，較上年同期410.52億人民幣，按年倒退15%至25%，中位數312億人民幣，按年跌24%。
由於2019年上半年股市強勁表現及保險稅收新規帶來稅收返還，帶來了2019年上半年較高的利潤基數，同時2020年上半年股市下滑及準備金補提的壓力下，本網綜合4間券商預期中國平安2020年上半年錄歸屬於母公司股東稅後營運利潤(OPAT)介乎710億至749億人民幣，較上年同期734.64億人民幣，按年跌3.4%至升2%，中位數727.75億人民幣，按年跌1.9%。
【新業務遜同業 疫情影響轉型】
大和料中國平安上半年新業務價值利按年跌24%至312億人民幣，料其上半年保險代理人數按年跌8%、推更多儲蓄產品令產品組合惡化下，料其第二季受到首年保費收入及新業務價值利潤率受壓拖累，並估計今年餘下時間仍會面臨挑戰。
野村本月初發表報告，料中國平安今年上半年新業務價值按年倒退23%至316.1億人民幣，意味著其第二季新業務價值倒退22%。該行預計，中國平安上半年稅後運營溢利按年增長2%，即其第二季按年倒退1%。
野村估計中國平安今上半年旗下壽險業務表現會落後於同業，因新冠疫情響其由壽險保險代理轉型至線上平台的步伐、其壽險業務缺乏充足的科技支援，估計其今年下半年新業務價值仍會按年倒退7%。
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本網綜合8間券商預期中國平安今年上半年新業務價值介乎308億元至349億人民幣，較上年同期410.52億人民幣，按年倒退15%至25%，中位數312億人民幣，按年跌24%。
券商│今年上半年新業務價值預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
美銀證券│349億元│-15%
瑞銀│344.84億元│-16%
花旗│320億元│-22%
野村│316.1億元│-23%
大和│312億元│-24%
海通國際│312億元│-24%
中金│308.17億元│-25%
摩根士丹利│308億元│-25%
瑞信│308億元│-25%
按上半年新業務價值410.52億元人民幣計
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本網綜合4間券商預期中國平安2020年上半年錄歸屬於母公司股東稅後營運利潤(OPAT)介乎710億至749億人民幣，較上年同期734.64億人民幣，按年跌3.4%至升2%，中位數727.75億人民幣，按年跌1.9%。
券商│今年上半年稅後營運利潤預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
野村│749.34億元│+2%
中金│734.73億元│+0.01%
摩根士丹利│720.76億元│-1.9%
美銀證券│710億元│-3.4%
按國壽歸屬於母公司股東稅後營運利潤734.64億人民幣
(ta/w)
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