《业绩前瞻》券商料中石油半年最多蚀逾410亿人币 但上月售网管资产 聚焦派息指引
中石油(00857.HK)将於本周四(27日)公布今年中期业绩，新冠疫情全球蔓延，经济活动大降以致需求减弱，期内亦受国际油价大幅波动拖累，在撇除出售管网业务资产收益因素下，本网综合5间券商预期中石油今年上半年业绩将由盈转亏，料蚀介乎285亿元至412.34亿人民币，对比2019年上半年纯利284.23亿人民币。
就中石油於今年7月下旬宣布，向国家管网集团出售管道业务，对价2,687亿人民币，其中1,495亿人民币将以国家管网集团29.9%股权支付，余额将以现金支付，中石油当时已指所得现金款项将用於派发股利回馈股东、开拓上游油气勘探开发及下游市场。投资者将聚焦中石油管理层对全年营运及派息指引，关注会否派发特别股息。
【料中绩亏损 候派息指引】
中银国际料中石油今年上半年将由盈转亏蚀285亿人民币，主要受低油价、炼油及市场务录巨库存拨备、需求不振等拖累。该行估计中石油第二季亏损可按季收窄25%至122亿人民币，下游业务盈能力可见改善。
麦格理料中石油今年上半年由盈转亏蚀441.57亿人民币、料收入9,036.16亿人民币按年跌24%，料EBIT录亏损307.18亿人民币，其中估计勘探与生产业务EBIT录亏损83.08亿人民币、炼油及化工业务EBIT录亏损85.61亿人民币、料销售业务EBIT录亏损235.81亿人民币，料其每股亏损0.24元人民币，料每股H股中期股息0.5元人民币(上年同期0.08元人民币)。
而瑞银估计中石油今年第二季每股录亏损0.08仙，将较首季收窄，但第二季勘探与生产业务仍然艰难、估计下游业务会呈复苏，料核心管业务录可增长，并估计出售管道业务资产会录增长，但料出售网管资产收益将於今年下半年入账。星展估计中石油第二季业绩仍然疲弱，但指公司出售网管资产可於今年下半年入账，料可成强力的股价催化剂。
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本网综合5间券商预期中石油今年上半年业绩将由盈转亏，料蚀介乎285亿元至412.34亿人民币，对比2019年上半年纯利284.23亿人民币。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测(人民币)
中银国际│亏损285亿元
瑞信│亏损332.34亿元
建银国际│亏损408亿元
美银证券│亏损362.34亿至412.34亿元
麦格理│亏损441.57亿元
按中石油2019年中期纯利284.23亿人民币计
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