《業績前瞻》券商料中石油半年最多蝕逾410億人幣 但上月售網管資產 聚焦派息指引
中石油(00857.HK)將於本周四(27日)公布今年中期業績,新冠疫情全球蔓延,經濟活動大降以致需求減弱,期內亦受國際油價大幅波動拖累,在撇除出售管網業務資產收益因素下,本網綜合5間券商預期中石油今年上半年業績將由盈轉虧,料蝕介乎285億元至412.34億人民幣,對比2019年上半年純利284.23億人民幣。
就中石油於今年7月下旬宣布,向國家管網集團出售管道業務,對價2,687億人民幣,其中1,495億人民幣將以國家管網集團29.9%股權支付,餘額將以現金支付,中石油當時已指所得現金款項將用於派發股利回饋股東、開拓上游油氣勘探開發及下游市場。投資者將聚焦中石油管理層對全年營運及派息指引,關注會否派發特別股息。
【料中績虧損 候派息指引】
中銀國際料中石油今年上半年將由盈轉虧蝕285億人民幣,主要受低油價、煉油及市場務錄巨庫存撥備、需求不振等拖累。該行估計中石油第二季虧損可按季收窄25%至122億人民幣,下游業務盈能力可見改善。
麥格理料中石油今年上半年由盈轉虧蝕441.57億人民幣、料收入9,036.16億人民幣按年跌24%,料EBIT錄虧損307.18億人民幣,其中估計勘探與生產業務EBIT錄虧損83.08億人民幣、煉油及化工業務EBIT錄虧損85.61億人民幣、料銷售業務EBIT錄虧損235.81億人民幣,料其每股虧損0.24元人民幣,料每股H股中期股息0.5元人民幣(上年同期0.08元人民幣)。
而瑞銀估計中石油今年第二季每股錄虧損0.08仙,將較首季收窄,但第二季勘探與生產業務仍然艱難、估計下游業務會呈復蘇,料核心管業務錄可增長,並估計出售管道業務資產會錄增長,但料出售網管資產收益將於今年下半年入賬。星展估計中石油第二季業績仍然疲弱,但指公司出售網管資產可於今年下半年入賬,料可成強力的股價催化劑。
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本網綜合5間券商預期中石油今年上半年業績將由盈轉虧,料蝕介乎285億元至412.34億人民幣,對比2019年上半年純利284.23億人民幣。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)
中銀國際│虧損285億元
瑞信│虧損332.34億元
建銀國際│虧損408億元
美銀證券│虧損362.34億至412.34億元
麥格理│虧損441.57億元
按中石油2019年中期純利284.23億人民幣計
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